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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: D.J.Smyth who wrote (157131)	5/12/2000 5:54:00 PM
From: John Tusson	Respond to of 176387

Dell expands into services market Interesting article on CNET news.cnet.com

To: D.J.Smyth who wrote (157131)	5/12/2000 7:10:00 PM
From: rudedog	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Darrell - now you are being silly. if you want to redefine "PC sector" why not redefine the sale categories of pickles and cucumbers while you're at it Let's see, IDC, dataquest, HP, IBM, CPQ and SUNW all define laptops and workstations in the desktop category. Only DELL calls them "enterprise" and DELL just started doing it this quarter. Who do they think they are fooling? what you mean to say is that once people arrive at YOUR understanding of guidance. let's see Rude. you've been saying this for nearly 15 months. yet Dell's business has grown 70% in that time. And DELL's stock price has grown zero. You would say that is evidence that DELL is undervalued. I would say it is more likely that DELL is now fairly valued and can start to move up. But you are incorrect about what I have been saying for 15 months. I said in spring of 1999 that DELL would not be able to maintain 50% growth rate, that its valuation at that time depended on that growth, and that therefore the stock would stagnate in the 40s until the business caught up to the price with growth in the 30% range. That is essentially what DELL management said a year later. It was also a whole lot more accurate than what you were predicting, but I won't embarrass you with your posts from back then. I also said last fall that DELL should be about there and should start moving up. I was too optimistic - DELL got tripped up by Intel and by supply chain issues. My understanding of guidance is a literal reading of the statements of DELL management at the last earnings CC, when they said that growth would be in the low 30% range for the rest of the year. They hit that exactly this quarter. They will need to get close to the 40% range from here on out to achieve 30% for the year. You DID listen to the CC I assume? If not I'm sure we can resurrect a transcript to refresh your memory. isn't this as much about rationalizing your own stock price expectations as it is arriving at a proper valuation? I hold 30,000 shares of DELL, It represents 10% of my portfolio. I would be delighted to see DELL go to 100. But I don't think it will happen. I have said earlier that I think it will be around 60 at year end 2000, and that I will be pleased with that value, assuming I can enhance my return by selling calls a couple of times over the year. If it is more than that, great, but I am not likely to increase my DELL position in expectation of that happening. The kind of nonsense that we are seeing here, after an earnings report which just met lowered expectations, a growth prediction which is 40% lower than the bulls on this thread were expecting in fall of last year, and 80% of their business in an increasingly commoditized PC market with no real signs of the movement that I want to see into more high margin server sales, and no consumer strategy, and no storage play, and no services play, is just a giddy response to the fact that DELL did not disappoint. It does a disservice to anyone looking here for intelligent investment advice. Anyone looking for a solid tech stock, with virtually no downside, a likely 20% appreciation in the second half of the year with upside potential of twice that if a couple of pieces fall into place should consider DELL at the top of their list. But "blowout" and the rest of the nonsense is just not supported by the facts.