Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : General Lithography -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (1229)	5/13/2000 9:25:00 AM
From: Dr. Mitchell R. White	Respond to of 1305

Hi Ian! I overheard at a social event last week that AMAT plans to build and ship about 260 metal deposition cluster tools for 200mm wafers in their Q3 (which they just entered). In contrast, I think they're building and shipping about one tool per week of the 300mm variety (again for metal deposition). That's on a pilot line, by the way, so I suspect it doesn't have much room to grow. I think they'll be lucky to ship 90 of the 300mm tools this year. So even if you assume that half of the 200mm tools are going for upgrades and expansion of existing fabs/lines, there's still a predominance of 200mm tools being shipped to Greenfields, compared to 300mm ones (which are pretty much all going to new construction at this time, yes?) Now, the 300mm wafer provides just over 2x the output per wafer, so it's an obvious extrapolation to say that each of the 300mm tools equals one 200mm tool. Obvious, but not right, I'm sure. I believe reported tool throughput ratios are more on the order of 1.3-1.4x (300mm to 200mm), because of the slower robotics, larger vacuum loads, and other factors. Based on this (admittedly crude) analysis, I would say that there are more greenfield fabs going 200mm right now. They could, of course, add 300mm lines soon, or convert the whole shebang later, and that would drive equipment makers even more bonkers than current demand. Jim Morgan, interviewed on CNBC the morning after they announced their record financials (and their stock took a major fall; lunacy!), was cagey about whether or not they had the capability to bring much new production online soon. I think they're really gonna have trouble keeping up on the 300mm side of the house! And 200mm tools currently have a nearly 60% margin (look at their reported financials!), so I doubt very much that they'll replace any 200mm build resources with 300mm in the new future. As my friend at the party said, "Things is tight all over!" Mitch PS I agree about the money issue, unfortunately there are bankers lining up at the door to help these fabs get going. Otherwise there wouldn't be so bloomin' many of them getting started! <also TFIC> M