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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alex who wrote (52638)	5/13/2000 8:00:00 AM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116753

...."The U.S. MUST continue to attract foreign capital. It has no savings. Its people continue to live beyond their immediate means, trusting the stock market to provide. Thus, the U.S. MUST continue to be a magnet for foreign capital. With prospects for capital gains dwindling - see the recent performance of the U.S. stock and bond markets - the prospect for at least a solid rate of return in a SAFE investment must be maintained. That means HIGHER interest rates. Gold vs The U.S. Dollar "The final "battle" was always going to be against Gold and Gold's usurper, the U.S. Dollar. If the U.S. can manage to keep all the financial balls currently in the air until the Presidential elections are over, it will be an awesome feat. One cannot rule it out, but we wouldn't want to bet the farm on it." (Posted on this page on April 28) Two weeks after that was written, the situation has worsened. The prospect of the re-emergence of another Asian Crisis is looming, with most Asian stock markets (including the Japanese market) showing big year 2000 losses. Europe's stock markets are holding up, though their currencies are not. In the U.S., the immediate prospect of swallowing a 0.50% rate rise must threaten further deterioration in both the stock and bond market. That leaves the Dollar, and waiting in the wings (where it has been for a LONG time) is Gold. There comes a point where an investment which has been looked upon as "guaranteed safe" for decades loses its reputation. There comes a point where a rate of return, no matter how badly needed, becomes secondary to capital preservation. That point is not yet here. It will be signalled by a turnaround of recent U.S. Dollar strength. We may have seen the first signs of that on May 12. A 0.50% rate rise on May 16, if it happens, "should" be very positive indeed for Gold. So should any further weakness in the Dollar, especially in the aftermath of such a rate rise. We say "should" for clear and obvious reasons. There is the Dollar, and there is Gold. They cannot co-exist in a monetary role. As long as there is no official link between them, it must be one or the other. We do not know if GATA explained that to the politicians they visited in Washington. We do know that the Gold machinations which GATA is (properly) protesting against are not new. We also know that they are going to be sorely tested in coming weeks." the-privateer.com

To: Alex who wrote (52638)	5/13/2000 10:39:00 AM
From: Ken Benes	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116753

Now I have heard it all. Barrick declaring that a deficit is increasing between supply and demand. To me, it sounds like barrick is rationalizing their huge hedged positions, increased production, and other manipulations that have been instrumental in the collapse of the price of gold. I would not trust the proclamations of barrick as far as I could toss a 1000 pound nugget of gold. Ken

To: Alex who wrote (52638)	5/13/2000 2:37:00 PM
From: goldsheet	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116753

> AngloGold to reduce its South African production target for 2000 by 4% or 7 t. 7mt is only 200,000 ounces, which will be easily made up in other areas of the world. RSA production peaked at 1000mt (32.2moz) in 1970 and has been on a decline ever since. The drop from 465mt in 1998 to 450mt in 1999 wasn't even noticed in a world where primary mine production went from 2555mt to 2569mt, covering the 15mt drop plus an extra 14mt. Gold production also peaked in 1997 or 1998 in the United States, Canada, and Australia, and these gaps are also being made up with very impressive projects elsewhere. > Australian gold companies are vulnerable to takeovers as investment interest is depressed and the sector is undervalued. > the world gold industry may end up with just seven or eight large gold producing companies. They must be reading my posts <grin>. I have been suggesting for some time that Australian miners are the most likely to be taken over, and more consolidation is needed. The top ten gold producers do 35moz outs of 82, but it should get over 50% eventually.