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Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (14758)	5/13/2000 8:15:00 PM
From: Techplayer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21876

Ken, Common sense will tell you that if company A has a minority % of a market and is growing far more slowly than company B that owns the majority of a market, company A is losing. Heck, even the dog enterprise business that LU has grew.... Also, if you were to invest 10 dollars into a pool of 100 that was later diluted by a factor of 2 or 3, you would no longer have the same % of that pool. Again, common sense. I do not need a link... My remark about the 10G was that LU has a product that is selling which obviously means that they did not miss the market. NT has the leading market share, much like CSCO in the enterprise. Fortunately for LU, the market is big and NT is incapable of meeting demand. Since there are NTcustomers that cannot get product and are unwilling to wait 6 months, LU will get some business there as well as their own historical customers. you also should be awre that the 10G market was relatively small to this point and that expenditures did not explode until the last 2 quarters, meaning that any financial losses to LU were at a minimum until then. LU will do fine. As Mr. Fun has pointed out, the growth for NT is a bit warp[ed since revenues were flat last year, giving NT an easy compare. We shall see where NT is in the December and March quarters next year when it comes to growth. the same cannot be said for CSCO (and btw, NT did not have 55% yoy revenue growth...you should try not to overstate things yourself). tp

To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (14758)	5/14/2000 7:07:00 PM
From: Mr.Fun	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 21876

Ken, I do not want you to perceive this as NT bashing - MM can tell you we have bought a lot in the last few weeks. However, your assertions require some response: 1. NT is suggesting that it WILL grow its enterprise business in 2h00, but it has been shrinking for 5 quarters vs. easy compares if you adjust for the purchase of Bay and the reconsolidation of European joint ventures. There is no way to spin it positively for NT - after the Bay acquisition, the entire enterprise group was paralyzed by channel conflicts. If you remember, NT sold its enterprise distribution to WilTel in 1997, then acquired Bay and its direct/2-tier channel mess. They are still sorting this out. 2. NT has indeed dominated the 10G market for the past 5 quarters. However, its growth is gated by capacity constraints, leaving plenty of room for LU to get in the game in a big way. Inside scuttlebut is that LU's 10G products are being favorably received by an attractive list of 1st tier carriers. I just heard yesterday that Sprint was really impressed and could be a customer this year. Of course you are correct when you say only time will tell. 3. Let's be real. NT had a great quarter, but its growth was not as good as Cisco. 46% NT topline growth should be adjusted down 5.3% to account for the consolidation of JVs. So a quarter of 41% growth vs. an extremely easy compare. Cisco put up 55% YoY vs. an extremely difficult compare. Of couse, NOK put up 73% vs. an equally difficult compare, and is valued at a multiple lower than NT.