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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Uncle Frank who wrote (24684)5/13/2000 6:29:00 PM
From: Mike Buckley  Respond to of 54805
 
you could have talked about codpieces and merkins and the gang would have been just as attentive.

That's very kind of you, Frank, but whether or not you're right probably hinges on the examples I might have used. :)

--Mike Buckley



To: Uncle Frank who wrote (24684)5/13/2000 8:22:00 PM
From: tekboy  Read Replies (6) | Respond to of 54805
 
Actually, Frank, I think you and Merlin have hit on an interesting ambiguity, which shows that GM might not be as precise as you believe.

I see his final statement, the one you picked up on about "this would be a terrible time to sell a gorilla," to concern relative valuation and the long term. In other words, he is saying that when the dust settles the gorillas will continue to do better than the market in years to come, so it would not make sense to sell a gorilla now and put the money into other stocks.

But he also says that "the Internet early market enthusiasm in investors probably carried all stocks too high," i.e. that there was a severe disjunction between all highflying tech stock prices and the underlying fundamentals valued in Pirah's or Merlin's way. He implies that this absolute overvaluation was unsustainable and is now coming back to earth. But if this is true, and one could have understood it at the time rather than in retrospect, then it would indeed have made sense (putting tax consequences aside for a second) to sell one's gorillas above a certain altitude, go to cash, and buy them back lower down.

I have a very hard time squaring our cherished belief that "you can't time the market" with what has happened over the last several months. Sure, I held on tight up and down and hopefully back up again, but in retrospect I wonder if that was simply because I was such a novice that I didn't know any better. For people who follow the market closely and are reasonably adept at valuing things, it seems like it might make sense to try some timing. If the Naz were to go nearly vertical again later this year, for example--as much as it did from November to March--would you not take some profits, sit on some cash, and await better buying opportunities?

always learning,

tekboy/Ares@confusedbrainswithabullmarket.com