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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: lurqer who wrote (24726)	5/14/2000 11:40:00 AM
From: Bruce Brown	Respond to of 54805

Within the last century, the last two times without a secular bull were the '30s and the '70s. In both of these periods LTB&H would have been a poor choice. As someone who cut his "market teeth" during the '70s (no I don't remember the '30s), I assure you that in '82, LTB&H had a justifiable "bad rep". It simply hadn't worked in more than a decade. True. With interest rates during the 70's and real estate as both excellent options to one's investments, money could have been made. With interest rates in money market funds paying 14 to 17% - cash did quite well just being cash. Not that every portfolio would have held some of the largest stocks, but many portfolios may have held Coke, GE, Motorola, IBM, AT&T, Merck, Amoco, Chevron, Mobil, P&G, Dupont, etc... . With dividends and market cap increase (outside of IBM) the patient long term investor was rewarded on somewhat of a level - despite the economic situation. Oil investors did very well. Seizing that opportunity during the 70's certainly was a widely chosen strategy. The 80's and 90's have done well for technology investors. Our study here, in terms of gorilla game investing, will be interesting to see what kind of longevity and return companies like Cisco, Siebel, Oracle, Microsoft, Intel, EMC, JDS Uniphase and others will provide throughout this decade whatever the economic climate is. BB

To: lurqer who wrote (24726)	5/14/2000 11:54:00 AM
From: Mike Buckley	Respond to of 54805

lurqer, Glad to know that you made your exception for the benefit of our folder! Feel free to make more exceptions, especially if they result in posts of such high quality. I agree that there have been periods of time that LTB&H hasn't worked well. On the other hand, there's no empirical evidence that timing the market or timing individual stocks worked any better during those same periods. By the way, you mentioned H. Dent's writing. Recently a generous lurker who attended the San Diego affair sent me two of Dent's books. I haven't yet read them but I will eventually. --Mike Buckley