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To: Larry S. who wrote (23326)5/14/2000 8:05:00 PM
From: DanZ  Respond to of 53068
 
GUMM.

Gum Tech announced a first quarter loss of 31 cents per share after the close on Friday. While this loss might be greater than many people expected, sales continued their growth year to year and the company is well positioned to continue growing this year. The following data summarizes one reason that I am bullish on Gum Tech's fundamentals.

Quarterly Revenue Growth


Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year
1997 to 1998: 52.6% 107.7% 0.1% 40.9% 39.6%
1998 to 1999: 121.4% 58.2% 76.4% 431.3% 194.0%
1999 to 2000: 64.2%

Same data shown another way:

1997 to 1998 1998 to 1999 1999 to 2000
Quarter 1: 52.6% 121.4% 64.2%
Quarter 2: 107.7% 58.2%
Quarter 3: 0.1% 76.4%
Quarter 4: 40.9% 431.3%
Year: 39.6% 194.0%



Gum Tech has consistently grown their revenues for three consecutive years and the company is well positioned to continue growing in all areas of their business this year and next (at least). Sales of gum should grow this year after nicotine gum comes on line in the fourth quarter. The gum business should continue to grow next year as Gum Tech starts producing dental gum for a "major consumer products company" and nicotine gum picks up momentum. Sales of Zicam should grow this year after a very successful launch in the US in 1999. Not only should domestic sales increase this year due to better product awareness, but international sales will also contribute to growth.

IMO, the stock has already overcompensated for the loss in the first quarter and I will definitely be buying tomorrow. If it is weaker, all the better. This may be a case of sell the rumor, buy the news and might represent a trading opportunity as well as an excellent entry point for longer term oriented investors. I believe that a lot of sideline money will come into the stock tomorrow, as I know several people who were waiting for the earnings to be released before buying the stock.

PS to Larry: I can post all the closed trades for the year or only the ones for the week. Does anyone have a preference? Also, would anyone like to see some other statistics? It's easy to build formulas in a spreadsheet...for an engineer, at least lol.



To: Larry S. who wrote (23326)5/15/2000 2:40:00 PM
From: Larry S.  Respond to of 53068
 
The Good Stock Thread: Subject 34571 I have started a new thread dedicated to, duh, Good Stocks, whatever the vintage. The focus is on value, old economy, lower PEs, techs, well-positioned companies. Anyone caring to visit and participate are welcome. Larry