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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Softechie who wrote (50705)	5/14/2000 4:50:00 PM
From: 10K a day	Respond to of 99985

the Chief...Is the a Most excellent Guru...I am waiting for his latest Cheetos Analysis...

To: Softechie who wrote (50705)	5/14/2000 5:17:00 PM
From: ted birnbaum	Respond to of 99985

firm prediction for up, down and flat

To: Softechie who wrote (50705)	5/14/2000 5:40:00 PM
From: Les H	Respond to of 99985

I hear Mogambo Guru is bearish.<g> There is a post on Ask Michael Burke thread with his latest musings.

To: Softechie who wrote (50705)	5/14/2000 7:53:00 PM
From: TheKelster	Respond to of 99985

GURU at large, Advice: Stock up on brown paper bags. I predict Monday everyone will keeping holding their breath. It will the 4.5 day lung exercise. On day 4.5 (counting last Friday) they will either puke, pass out, or start hyperventilating as the market creates a great sucking sound (as it moves up). If they don't puke and pass out right away, they will continue hyperventilating until next Friday. Then the market will make another giant sucking sound (as it moves down). At which point they will start to puke and pass out. After using the brown paper bags for carbon dioxide control this week, they can recycle them for take out lunches. They won't have enough left in the account to pay for eat out or carry out next week. Now that you have been forewarned, you can take your own brown bags and cover your shoes. As you nimbly jump in and out of the market you won't want to get any nasty stuff on your shoes. Caveat: If you don't mind overpaying, this advice is worth at least the cost of a brown paper sack. :-D

To: Softechie who wrote (50705)	5/15/2000 2:54:00 AM
From: schrodingers_cat	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Thoughts on this week's market... Most seem to expect the Fed to raise by a half point, and I think that the market has already reacted to this. What really bothers me is the CPI number coming out the same day as the Fed meeting. Two scenarios... 1/ Low CPI and people say, "Well, I guess that bad reading last month was just a blip, there is no inflation, so maybe AG won't raise rates much more." This leads to a big rally in stocks. 2/High CPI and people say, "Uh-oh, this confirms inflation is a problem, so we are going to have lots more rate increases." This leads to continued weakness in stocks. Note that I am talking about the core CPI. The headline number will probably look good because of last month's fall in gas prices, but the market will focus on the core rate. Another point is that the market hates uncertainty, and when the economic figures and the Fed's action is known, the uncertainty will be gone and that will be quite bullish. OTOH I'm concerned about the sharp drop-off in trading volume (on the NAS) over the past week, almost as if some people have begun to fear and dread what the future may hold (for the NAS) while others are deep in denial. I'm not convinced that this is solely because of the Fed meeting. It might be the start of a general disillusionment with investing in tech stocks. I think I will stay in cash but if I had to choose I would go long on the basis that the NAS is at the low end of its recent trading range and the removal of uncertainty Tues pm should be good for a nice rally.