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To: Sully- who wrote (18818)	5/14/2000 11:04:00 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 35685

yup, noticed gasoline up slightly again my guess is combination of crude oil inching up, and anticipation of higher late spring/ early summer demand but my seasonal inner signal detection is way off it aint summer yet just feels like it down here in Clearwater day after day now, kissing 90 degrees and increasingly humid my inner clock is screaming AUGUST !!! / Jim

To: Sully- who wrote (18818)	5/15/2000 1:00:00 AM
From: T L Comiskey	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 35685

RE ..More fuel for the Fed's fire... Tequila Sunset? Agave Shortage May Take Some Fire Out of Your Margarita By Michael James May 14 ? Thank goodness America made it through Cinco de Mayo OK. A shortage of the plant used to make tequila is inflating prices for the liquor and may cause shortages on store shelves, especially for small, higher-end brands, industry observers say. ?There?s going to be some impact, certainly on prices,? says Steve Goldstein, vice president of public relations for United Distillers and Vintners, a Connecticut company that imports and markets the Jos‚ Cuervo and 1800 brands. ?The truth is agave prices have quadrupled, or more,? he added, referring to the plant from which tequila is distilled. Prices Already Rising Cuervo already has raised retail prices slightly in some markets ? perhaps 10 to 15 percent, he said. But then again, other producers have raised prices too, some by higher margins, he and other observers say. ?Certainly, we want to keep prices somewhat reasonable,? Goldstein says. ?We think consumers will understand what?s going on here ? that these are not arbitrary price increases.? Most tequila is made in Mexico. And by Mexican law, all tequila must be made from a substantial amount of agave. Some higher-end brands are made with more agave, and observers say they are more likely to feel the pinch of a shortage. ?There are just so many agave plants available to make tequila,? says Paul Pacult, editor of The Spirit Journal, a newsletter on liquors. ?Definitely the high end will be hurt. The tequilas that are labeled ?100 percent agave? will be hurt. But ? even the less expensive brands of tequilas known as mixtos ? even those need agave. So the shortage will hit the higher end most quickly, but it will be an across-the-board effect.? Goldstein says Cuervo is less likely to have problems because of its size ? it has the largest share of the tequila market in the United States ? and because it owns many of its own agave fields. But he expected some smaller growers may not be able to get their hands on enough agave to keep liquor stores stocked with tequila at current levels. Several Causes The problem has several causes, industry experts say. In the short term, there is a mold that is harming mature agave plants. Some say it?s affecting 20 percent of this year?s crop. ?I think it?s something that probably most consumers wouldn?t have sticker shock about yet ? unless it continues,? says David Fleming, the managing editor of Impact, an alcoholic beverage industry newsletter. ?The indications are that it won?t.? But some believe there are longer-term problems for tequila growers ? the combination of increasing demand, a limited supply and an eight- to 12-month maturation period for the agave plant. ?There was ? a problem with a frost and disease, but the real problem is that the demand was so great for tequila,? Pacult says. ?My honest opinion is I think we have a long-term problem,? he adds. ?And the solution lies with the producers coming to an agreement with the growers of agave on a long-term plan, so that the growers are allowed ample time to have the plant come to full maturity. It could also mean that new areas need to be developed for cultivation.? Comes at a Bad Time The shortage comes as tequila ? and the margarita, a drink in which it is the key ingredient ? have ?skyrocketed in popularity,? according to Pacult and other experts. ?All the Southwestern and Mexican restaurants that rely on margaritas ? it will have an effect on them,? Pacult says. ?And I hope it won?t be a great effect because I love tequila.? The manager of one of those restaurants ? Zarela, a Mexican restaurant in Manhattan ? says she already is feeling the squeeze. Michaell Raffer says less expensive brands that restaurants typically use for margaritas are disappearing from the market, and prices are rising on the more expensive tequilas ? just as demand for margaritas rises for the summer. ?We?re agonizing about what to do,? she says. The shortage hits especially hard, she says, in a restaurant like hers, which is known for its margaritas. ?We don?t want to stint on it,? she says. ?We don?t want to put less alcohol in the drinks, we don?t want to use cheaper stuff, and we don?t want to serve smaller amounts. ? Ultimately, it has to affect our pricing.?