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Strategies & Market Trends : Piffer OT - And Other Assorted Nuts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cheeky Kid who wrote (33495)	5/15/2000 5:07:00 AM
From: Edwarda	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 63513

Whether you mean to do so or not, Cheeky, you probably will find a hornets' nest on this subject. I'm in your camp, but for the people who are wedded to TA, these are "fightin' words."

To: Cheeky Kid who wrote (33495)	5/15/2000 6:59:00 AM
From: Atin	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 63513

The reasoning behind TA is actually quite simple. The fundamentals of a company do not change day to day -- but the stock price almost invariably does. Something else besides fundamentals must drive this -- and that something else is the amount of buying and selling people are doing, for whatever reason. Just as the value of a house doesn't go up or down just based on its "fundamentals", the value of a company's stock doesn't go up and down just based on the fundamentals. There is a supply and demand equation that comes into play and TA just tries to measure this supply and demand. Yes, usually good companies with good fundamentals also have the supply and demand in their favor, more demand than supply and the stock price goes up. Whenever the supply becomes more, the stock price will tend to go down. TA is just the art of measuring supply and demand. I call it art because there are no guarantees in TA either, just like there are no guarantees in fundamental analysis (after all, there would be no earnings surprises if fundamental analysis was infallible, and the analysts wouldn't have so many different estimates on things). I tend to think you really need both -- fundamentals tip the scales in your favor, but TA gets you a good price. There are somewhat different objectives and time horizons for the people who use them. And most people I know tend to use both. Use whatever tools you have at your disposal, this game is hard enough as it is! This isn't a religion after all, even if practitioners seem to make it so. -Atin

To: Cheeky Kid who wrote (33495)	5/15/2000 9:26:00 AM
From: Doppler	Respond to of 63513

Hi Cheeky- I am a firm believer in TA. I have used Candlesticks, PnF, "conventional" TA, and even dabbled a bit in Elliot wave and cycle analysis. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. Most of the time when it doesn't it's because I overlook some variable or am trying to force a trade. In general however, I do believe it gives someone an edge. Your point about TALENT though is RIGHT ON !!! My weather analysis based on various charts isn't always right. (Just usually). That doesn't make the charts wrong. The problem with both types of analysis is that there are a huge number of variables. In weather everyone gets the exact same maps to analyze and make a prediction, yet the forecasts are often wildly different. That's because one forecaster might decide that the high humidity today doesn't mean cloud formation, but instead higher humidities near the ground, because some other variable like subsidence (sinking air) is going to override it. IT's the same thing with stock TA. Sometimes stochastics might point to a stock being oversold, like in the case of many Naz stocks lately, so everyone calls for a bounce. When the bounce doesn't happen they think TA is bogus. Well, many times they disregarded some other factor. Maybe even the same variable just with a different time scale. For example, at the same time that the daily stochastics were oversold lately, most of weekly stochastics were still closer to overbought. That meant that stocks didn't have to bounce because the daily values were oversold. They could simply hold steady, or even drop at a slower rate, and then head still lower. Then there are all the other variables that need to get factored in as well. Most people don't realize how difficult it is to get the experience and maintain the objectivity required to be good at TA. (when you lose objectivity you overlook things you shouldn't based on factors like GREED, etc). So you are RIGHT. TA is BOGUS-for some For many others that have the TALENT, it is something that gives them an edge and works very well. just my 2 cents- from a very successful professional forecaster that understands it's not the data that shouldn't be believed, but the analysis of that data by less talented people. Jeff

To: Cheeky Kid who wrote (33495)	5/15/2000 11:48:00 AM
From: Jorj X Mckie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 63513

I also believe that TA, and for the ones it works for is basically a tool for a talent. I agree that TA is a tool to be used to determine when to buy and sell a given stock. It can also be a tool to pick stocks. In most cases, I don't believe that any TA should be used without fundamentals, but there are some people that can trade quite effectively without knowing one fundamental fact about the stock that they are trading. Personally, I wouldn't buy a stock without looking at the chart first. Just like I wouldn't buy a chart without checking out the financials and business case first. I have seen TA work too many times to discount it. It doesn't mean that all support levels hold, but when they don't it is a pretty good indication that you should get out of the stock. And vice versa with the buy signals. I use TA for timing Tom

To: Cheeky Kid who wrote (33495)	5/15/2000 1:25:00 PM
From: James West	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 63513

TA is not accurate if you don't know how to use it.

To: Cheeky Kid who wrote (33495)	5/16/2000 2:23:00 AM
From: Chartgod	Respond to of 63513

Cheeky ??... Was'da Gol'aie? >but I don't think TA would have made one bit of a difference. < Oh yes, it 'wood' HAVE...but whatever, your thoughts., R you'rs....You Create, you're OWN'd thoughts.. Sew..??...what's nWext's ??? JJCII

To: Cheeky Kid who wrote (33495)	5/16/2000 2:24:00 AM
From: SkyDart	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 63513

Man, Read Elder's book, Trading For A Living. TA works. It is saying to buy the NASDAQ right now especially EXDS at 76 CMGI at 61, and Telecoms like ALGX, biotechs like GLGC, INCY etc. Double bottoms on declining volumes, MACD bullish divergences, and many other reasons; not the least of which is extremely negative sentiment [ie Consensus Bulls down to 21%]. I expect doubles and triples by christmas in the above stocks from tday's levels. Bookmark this post and let me know....if you believe TA in December 2000 The Dart

To: Cheeky Kid who wrote (33495)	5/16/2000 2:45:00 AM
From: Jorj X Mckie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 63513

Cheeky, you are well on your way to be banned from this thread. Here we try to run a quiet little thread, not bothering nobody and nobody bothering us and what do you do??? You raise a big red flag saying "c'mon down, we're having a party". Anyway, All of you newbies to the thread, read the thread introduction to get a flavor for the thread. Most of us reasonable people at the very least tolerate TA. ("Piffer" is the affectionate term for Point and Figure technical analysis). OK Cheeky, I have thought about it some more, you can stay<g> JXM

To: Cheeky Kid who wrote (33495)	5/16/2000 8:25:00 AM
From: uncle_al_the_kiddies_pal	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 63513

Technical analysis is a load of bull. In the short run, markets are totally manipulated by analysts, the Fed, the media, and other external factors. In the long run, markets are driven by performance. The only TA that has any value is the kind you find at Hooters.

To: Cheeky Kid who wrote (33495)	5/16/2000 11:36:00 AM
From: Yogizuna	Respond to of 63513

The stocks I lost my ass in were fundamentally unsound and I bot at 52 week highs, and kept on buying..... Cheeky, Even third grade level T.A. would have kept you from buying those dogs at 52 week highs, and would have stopped you from buying more if you paid attention..... Yogi (who has done just fine with technical analysis for many, many years thank you)

To: Cheeky Kid who wrote (33495)	5/16/2000 11:59:00 AM
From: Yogizuna	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 63513

Cheeky, "Astro" (the using of astrology or the cycles of the planets rotating around the sun in relation to one another to time the market) has been around for a long time. We used to have heated discussions about the subject on the Prodigy boards why back in 1990, and it was one of the most popular posting areas on Money Talk. Arch Crawford has been using Astro in his market forecasting since the early 1980's at least, and he has made it to the top of the market timer's pyramid from time to time. Sometimes I will use the phases of the moon or an eclipse to add to my T.A. toolbox, but Astro is only about 5% of my T.A. work. Yogi