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To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (50756)5/15/2000 2:01:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 99985
 
no, it is not. you see two phases depicted: one was the cyclical high of the ratio right before the onset of a deflationary depression (1929), the other high in the ratio (late '60's/early '70's) came right before the onset of a period of excessively high inflation.
market values behave best during times of mild inflation or disinflation (i.e. a slowing in inflation acceleration). they misbehave when (CPI) prices are rising too fast AND when they drop too fast. see also Japan...the last time they had any measurable inflation there was 11 years ago.

regards,

hb



To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (50756)5/15/2000 2:52:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 99985
 
here's an interesting study concentrating on p/e as a predictive tool for long term stock market performance:

csf.colorado.edu


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