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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GVTucker who wrote (157179)	5/16/2000 1:35:00 AM
From: TTOSBT	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Re: "As always, I am open to a better alternative. Got one?" Trust! I have found that is the only thing that anyone has when dealing with the future! TTOSBT

To: GVTucker who wrote (157179)	5/16/2000 1:25:00 PM
From: D.J.Smyth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

GV i believe there is a better method of future "valuation". the ultimate question is not current "valuation" anyway, but arriving at a more stable predictor of future growth and/or future "valuation" if you take Dell's investment income growth over the past two years (excluding partial current data) as a predictor of Dell's stock price (although not using 'income growth' as the lone predictor - but representing a major component relative to statistical significance), you'll discover that the investment income growth has been a good lead indicator of the stock price growth (not using only f and t tests - but utilizing other algorithmic formulations as well) to exclude the investment income (by whatever name you call it - as in CPQ's name "strategic") as a model predictor of future growth is wrong. Fleckenstein's insistance in excluding it shows me that his predictive model is potentially flawed as a long term predictor. Fleckenstein may be simply looking at the short term valuations and sentiment of the PC sector, the gross margin, profit margin, operating margin, overall published growth patterns, and doing a forward run; but clearly there are equally important, if not more important variables in helping predict future long term growth patterns will say that such short term model thinking has not served as a good indicator of future long term growth - so you look elsewhere for valid predictors