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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (50791)	5/15/2000 5:59:00 PM
From: Vitalsigns	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Rally????? Not for the faint of heart IMO Interest rates are going up once again and Oil prices at multi year highs which will translate into higher operating costs and lower earnings going forward for most companies. ( Not the stuff markets like to rally on ).Nasdaq and DOW are still priced to perfection with Price to earnings multiples that even the best companies will have difficulty maintaining. The market loves to surprise and this year may be no exception. Everyone is banking on an election year rally and a no rally summer could be the surprise that no one expects. Its a high percentage bet that Al Gore will lose the presidential race and that the Republicans will be elected back into power. If you think the Monika Lewinski affair rattled the public , I can't wait to see what comes out in the open once the Rep. begin to audit the Clinton books. (But thats another story ) Did anybody say Strikes???? Labor unrest ??? How about the "Summer of Discontent" ?, I expect to read that headline in an August issue of Wall street journal. Here's aclip from tonight Bloomberg update : 11. Diesel Fuel Rally Drives Truckers and Farmers to Cut Their Costs or Quit Talihina, Oklahoma: For trucker Jean Coleman, sleeping in a hot cab this summer may mean the difference between profit and loss. A yearlong, 29 percent surge in diesel fuel prices has forced independent truckers to slash operating costs or quit the business altogether. Even running the air conditioning during rest periods is a luxury some can no longer afford. ``In years past, we'd let the engine idle, but not now,'' said Coleman, 56, owner-operator of a 550-horsepower Volvo 770 long-haul rig. ``When fuel is your highest operating cost, a few cents a gallon can make you or break you.'' Truckers and farmers in the U.S., who may buy $50 billion of diesel fuel this year, have been hurt more by higher fuel costs than motorists, few of whom are changing their holiday vacation plans because of rising gasoline prices. What about the possibility of another curency crises because of the Strong US dollar that may get even stronger with another rate hike. Can other economies that are already fragil afford to have a US slow down that affects their exports or a stronger Us dollar that puts downward pressure on foreign currencies? Euro may get hit again , what about China or japan? I have been a Bull for most of the last few years but recently have turned very bearish looking forward. Maybe I am missing something here with the " this time it's different " heard. Greenspan has been busy lining up his dominoes over many years but it will only take one to fall to start the ball rolling. Why did the official head of Forex trading for China commit suicide last Thursday? Maybe it was for personal reason , maybe it is one of the dominoes that Greenspan may need to protect against us very soon. Who knows , but one things for sure the volumes on the Us equities are anemic for this time of the year and it is not even Summer yet. Unless we get a good burst of volume and a constant infusion of cash during the next few months it appears the the markets will fall on its own weight. Am i missing something here? ???????? I don't see a reason to rally. Edit: did anybody notice how Gold was strong today even though Bullion spot was down and Us equities were up. I like my golds <ggggg> Vitalsigns