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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (50836)	5/15/2000 9:01:00 PM
From: SBerglowe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

~has now created a position of demand on a rebound in the market, of course this is subjective, but the oversold trin supports this, and the failure of many leading tech stocks, like csco, sunw, txn, to take out major support. It's going to rally here, but everyone will be watching the momentum, and I suspect quick to pull out their money and grab profits. Too many variables....

To: bobby beara who wrote (50836)	5/15/2000 9:10:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 99985

Bobby, maybe they'll take it out at the next best opportunity...this rally could still be a C of 2 (SPX), in view of the fact that the Rydex ratio is back at 0,12. that said, it could go a little further and still be within the parameters of a C wave within a larger corrective structure. a sentiment bottom of sorts was made in terms of the Consensus Inc. poll at 21% as of last Wednesday. but polled opinions change dramatically within days in this market. the Rydex fund positioning says no-one gave up the bullish stance, regardless of recent market gyrations. the highest we ever got to was 0,18, wildly overbought by past (not too long ago) standards. one or two more days like today and it'll be back at an all time low. so we have mutual fund cash-to-assets at an all time low, Rydex ratio nearly there, and lots of people expecting the run-of-the-mill rate hike rally...and we're rallying on even less volume than we sold off on. i conclude that even if a summer rally of sorts has begun, it'll be choppy and likely won't go very far. regards, hb