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To: LBstocks who wrote (19022)	5/16/2000 1:26:00 AM
From: Ruffian	Respond to of 35685

TA update Monday's Nasdaq broke below a rising trendline, and on Tuesday the prior intraday low of 3592 was penetrated on the close, implying a retest of the earlier lows of 3320 (closing price) and 3227 (intraday low), within a few days. While the damage was severe the last two sessions, the Nasdaq's trin did not indicate a selling climax, as it was "only" 2.83 on Wednesday. It has risen to as high as 50 intraday during one devastating day in April, but can indicate a selling climax when over 10 or 20. The Nasdaq could overshoot once again as it tests the lows, which could put it at 3000 or 2900 if it dropped over 10%, and perhaps 15% intraday. If that were to happen Thursday or Friday, then technicians would be looking for a key reversal at the close or the next session. Many are forecasting a prolonged Nasdaq bear market, while this observer does not due to the ever-present New Paradigm, New Economy, excellent earnings/revenues growth for technology/Internet companies, and the extremely oversold technical indicators. The Nasdaq's MACD, rate of change, and OBV are neutral, which is encouraging in the intermediate term, though short term the Nasdaq and tech stocks could suffer another day or two of sharp declines. The Nasdaq's weekly stochastic is 8% going down, daily 28% going down, so this index is now approaching the low weekly stochastic of April 14 when it was 5%, which was the lowest close of the Nasdaq since last year. The Dow's weekly stochastic is 31% going down, daily 13% going down, hourly 18% going down, and New York Stock Exchange trin closed at a neutral 1.02, and long bond rates declined to 6.16% as there may have been a flight to quality vis-a-vis the Nasdaq sharp decline Wednesday. This Nasdaq bear market has occurred over the last two months, and finally sentiment has turned very bearish in terms of put/call ratio and investment advisors bullish/bearish, so we may be nearing a time when these indicators point to a reversal, along with others covered here (e.g. weekly stochastics). Liquidity and money flow factors are not favorable during this season, so rallies from these levels may be very choppy and not very explosive. The first order of business is to ascertain whether a bottom is being put in during the next few sessions, and then the quality of any subsequent rallies. - Glossary of technical analysis terms - Talk Back: Chat with Dr. Bob:. lvlamb,,,, #26706, By jkl on Thursday, 11 May 2000 at 12:33 PM EDT you're a trip lv,,,, #26705, By jkl on Thursday, 11 May 2000 at 12:29 PM EDT Caveat: We could fill the gap just below 3585, an #26704, By Drbob512 on Thursday, 11 May 2000 at 11:58 AM EDT DR bob: