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Pastimes : All Clowns Must Be Destroyed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jmootx who wrote (33122)	5/16/2000 8:53:00 AM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42523

well, like i said before, the '94 market was very different from today's. for one thing it wasn't as overvalued. throughout '94, the S&P traded in a p/e range between its historical 'overvalued' and its historical 'fair value' p/e. when the bubble took off later that year, the S&P began to trade far above the 'overvalued' p/e range and the gap nowadays is one of the widest ever. that said, we can not conclude that a bear market has begun. that's simply not true with the S&P only 100 points below its all time high. neither bulls nor bears can in fact claim victory, as the major indices are more or less where they were one year ago. the only index that's clearly been in a bear market since April '98 is the non-market cap weighted VGY. so you do have a bear market in the majority of stocks, but not yet in the cap-weighted indices, as money concentrates in fewer and fewer issues (a trend that seems to have reversed a bit of late btw.). once the S&P breaks below last October's reaction low, i'd be willing to call it a bear market...not before.