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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (50892)	5/16/2000 10:11:00 AM
From: the Chief	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Why wouldn't you want to elaborate on the elements forming your guesses, whatever they may be? The elements forming any guess can be rather extensive. I don't make a call based on a "guru's" narrative in the WSJ, a graph showing a blip in gold, or an instantaneous snapshot of anything. This thread contributes "significant" instantaneous decsisions based on snapshots of the day. How do you quantify an accumulation of data over 4 months into a reason for the market to go up? Even the analysts this thread quotes don't go into lengthy diatribes, they are pointed in what they say. If the Fed raises .5% then the market will go down....I don't believe its that easy. Because it does not take into account investor tenacity. 80% of all you read is hype the other 20% is bullshit. Look at the fabric that the market is composed of, and dismiss the rest as noise. I have found that drawing 100 different graphs showing the market will go down, can be just as inaccurate as drawing one....especially if the market goes up! How do you argue, or discuss the ramifications of a tightening monetary system when the data provided is from either a bull camp or a bear camp, both come to different conclusions on the same data. When bulls start to win the bull bear fight, bears just say its a break in the "second leg down" in a bear market. If bears win, then the bulls say "we are going thru a minor correction and will resume an upward bias after we enter the second bull phase. This or any threads value, is getting "in writing" the predictions of those who wish to contribute. A prediction that is clearly stated. Those that are wrong can then go into the reasons they blew it, those that are right can explain why they were right. But until one is proven right or wrong......its all noise! the Chief