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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Fun-da-Mental#1 who wrote (50895)	5/16/2000 10:31:00 AM
From: the Chief	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 99985

Sorry LG, I'll answer this post directed to me and leave. If you know how you feel but can't explain it, what's the point posting? Quite simply it becomes a "bear/bull argument. The same sort of argument that ensues on the gold bug thread.Nothing is "learned" on these threads. Everyone pumps there latest interpretation of data and no-one debriefs as to why they decoded the data wrong. I will be more than willing to come back to this thread and let you all know what I use to call 3460, 3400 and now my latest prediction, but i won't sit around having people throw 1000 graphs at me, only to find out there interpretation was wrong and I right. If the people on this thread will state categorically what will happen in the next 7 days, then 14 etc etc and then right or worng disect their failure or success, I'd love to continue. But I have read through this thread and no-one admits to being wrong, just that there "theory has been delayed". Bye the Chief

To: Fun-da-Mental#1 who wrote (50895)	5/16/2000 4:45:00 PM
From: the Chief	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

Fun-da-Mental said:If you know how you feel but can't explain it, what's the point posting? Even if you're right it doesn't help anybody else. True, so I will attempt to explain why I am a bull and adhere to LG's rules; First of all lets all of us get straight what a bear market is, most of you are talking bears within a bull market. As if the specific indexes of a Market will lead to a bear market. This is not the case. A bear is a bear with all markets failing for virtually the same reasons. Obviously the bull is the other way around. So why am I a bull and why don't I read a zillion charts, and why do I guess right.....some of the time. It is rather simple really and can be explained. First, lets look at any exchange, all exchanges are made up of Indices. The indices contain groups of stocks that represent that indices group. So of course you find all the Biotechs in the biotech index, etc. In the end what makes a market move up or down is the value of the indexices contained within that market. So if we look at the nasdaq the index for Technology is weighted very heavily in the Composite and therefore plays havoc with that market everytime it moves, up or down. So I tend to ask myself the question, what indices will do well in this environment and which will do poorly in this rate hike environment. Well it doesn't take a rocket scientist alot of time to figure out that "transportation Index, will likely suffer during this period because interest rates and high oil prices don't help. But what about the oil index?? Well it should go up because there will be an oil shortage this summer. What about the Oil services index well that should also rise because oil drilling will pick up. What about the resource index? Well base metals are recovering and LME reserves are dropping, so yes the Mining Index and resource index should rise. What about the Forestry iNdex? Well yes, it should rise as well paper prices are rising and the cost per tonne is scheduled to rise again by the end of this month. What about media??No, they should probably fall because they rely on the paper industry, higher costs and they lose money. What about the "fertilizer" index. Well yes Nitrogen and Potash prices have been rising steadily and are forecasting larger demand. Auto & Auto Parts Index, well no, they should actually suffer a bit with higher rates, but incentive programs may bridge the gap, but overall profits should fall. What about the real Estate Index? Well housing starts have fallen, that puts a shortterm squeeze on existing real estate that is spurred on by this "smokin economy" so yes Real Estate will rise in the shortterm What about Pipelines? Well there will be an electrical shortage in the US this summer. Pipelines push GAS and OIL so they will do well. What about the Utliities Index. Well they'll have to pay more for Oil &Gas but they will be satidsfying a demand, so they will rise as well. My point is by the time you run down the all of Indices only about 8 out of 30 will do poorly. This is not a BEAR scenario....its not even close. "I predict" a "super summer" with the markets going higher. Nasdaq wil continually reajust in the 3650 area. Some companies on the NAS will rise and other companies on the Nas will fall , but the result will be 3650 in the shortterm. The DOW will blow 11,000 in the next couple of days and continue on as profits from all of the indices are reported.DOW will reach 12,500 by September or earlier. TSE ( I am Canadian ) will break 10,000 this week or early next week with a forecasted September number of 10,850. It will be propelled by resource stocks, biomeds, pharmaceuticals, Real Estate, etc etc. We will have a very bullish summer, however, September will be the end, and I mean the end. We will run into some very very bad times during the last 4 months of 2000 Our ability to pull a bear out of a bull will be tested and saved by one thing and one thing only.....Asia....it better be hoppin by then! thats it thats all, I'm finsihed and I'm outta here! See you in September, when I will go over these prophecies and take the flak if wrong! the Chief