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To: jim kelley who wrote (42365)	5/16/2000 4:41:00 PM
From: Tenchusatsu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Jim, <About 32 M units of RDRAM will be shipped in the first 1/2 year. Looks like RDRAM is on track to meet its projections.> Well, since I asked Carl, I guess I'll ask you too. How did you get to the 32M unit figure for RDRAM? Link please. Tenchusatsu

To: jim kelley who wrote (42365)	5/16/2000 6:47:00 PM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 93625

Hi jim kelley; Re the Semico estimate of 20 to 30 million units of RDRAM demand for 2000: eet.com If you read the quote in context, I think you will find that they are talking about the PC marketplace only. In other words, the PS2 is not included in those numbers. Given an industry production of 3 billion per year, that 30 million RDRAM penetration is around 1%. But Semico's own projection for RDRAM production (including the PS2 usage) is much higher: Sherry Garber, an analyst at Semico Research in Phoenix, predicted DDR will take half the DRAM market, but not until 2004. She said the technology will occupy 9 percent of the market this year, compared with 2.6 percent for Direct RDRAM, jumping next year to 20 percent, while Direct Rambus holds at 2.3 percent. techweb.com The above estimates are within the 7% bounds that Semico placed on them 8 months ago: Direct Rambus and DDR each will account for less than 7% of worldwide DRAM unit shipments in 2000, while a little more than three-fourths of the market will be PC100/PC133 devices, according to Semico Research Corp., Phoenix. techweb.com The same caveat applies to Semico's estimates for usage of RDRAM during the first four months of this year, the numbers are for PC usage only, and don't include PS2 prodcution (as I noted in a post at that time): According to preliminary data from an upcoming DRAM global market survey from Sherry Garber, an analyst at Semico Research Corp., Phoenix, total Direct RDRAM shipments in the first four months of this year amounted to 2 million units. techweb.com To get to dollars shipped, you can take the above 3% market penetration figure and multiply it by the 2.5x that RDRAM costs. This gives about 7.5%, which is the figure that is most often quoted, and is the one that I gave a month ago: #reply-13658060 -- Carl

To: jim kelley who wrote (42365)	5/17/2000 8:26:00 AM
From: gnuman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 93625

Jim re: <About 32 M units of RDRAM will be shipped in the first 1/2 year.> Since you're tracking the chip/RIMM sales, any idea of how the 820 mix look's? Does it lean toward 4 million VC820's with 1 RIMM, or 2 million VC820's with two RIMM's? (I'm assuming the 840 sales are a low percentage). Are there 2 - 4 million VC820's available this half? Or is RIMM inventory building? How many VC820's must be diverted for the CC820 recall? Lot's of question's, but they kind of quantify the problem. (Or are you going to ask me to "Do your own legwork, guy?") <g> TIA