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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rocky Reid who wrote (11103)	5/16/2000 11:35:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Respond to of 60323

In the DRAM market, the "standard" learning curve was 30% year decline in ASP and cost, in 98/99, that curve was broken badly. As long as the flash learning curve stays ahead of that it should be OK. My worry, however, is technical, SNDK is still under the April low and of course has made a new low on the May decline. It could very well be that this is due to SEG dumping, but it is still a problem that buyers did no prevent the technical breakdown. IMHO, that usually indicate a fear in the market that the glowing future painted by the expected rapid growth of the market and the actual one may have some divergence. SMDK really must close above about $73 to just turn "neutral", IMHO. Zeev

To: Rocky Reid who wrote (11103)	5/17/2000 7:04:00 AM
From: Ausdauer	Respond to of 60323

Rocky, I think you have succintly distilled Dr. Harari's comments about "market elasticity". Boosting flash production will bring MP3 player price points down further to where they will be a NECESSITY for Christamas or Birthday to make your kid happy. And the excuse that flash memory is too expensive will evaporate as an excuse NOT to buy an MP3 player. More flash supply will FUEL sales of devices that use it.. I think this concept is misunderstood, even by those who have weathered the shortfalls and gluttony in the DRAM market in the past. I am not an economist, but I am pretty sure these same dynamics will not apply to flash. As flash supply increases, demand will increase in step. I am not worried about overproduction for another 5 or 10 years. Ausdauer