To: Maya who wrote (3439 ) 5/17/2000 8:16:00 AM From: MRGURU007 Respond to
A nice post from another board which is worth reading i think......A must read & learn! Understanding the fiberchain-101-Read this! I have now owned over 30 fiber optic stocks at one time or the other and have finally settled into 10 big winners dating back to Dec 1999. Hlit will not go away and is a stud with one of the lowest P/E's in this sector. First lets look at the ways fiberoptics gets to your house and who the players are between. I have players on my hockey team that are with ericy, alcatel, nortel, and intv. Two are head of engineering and r&d so this is pretty well informed stuff here. Alcatel sucks according to all because they buy up sloppy old technology and they can't deliver from end ? to ? end ? yet. Nortel is the stud and really is killing everyone, they have no shortage of products from signal to house. This is what killed Lucent, they told analysts their growth figures, signed contracts and couldn't deliver. They all figured this out with the earnings report on the fiber finance sheet. (Cien) ciena recently broke into this market originally with dwdm technology and then took it to a higher level? faster, cooler, and cheaper, they amplify the signal through fiber optic lines to the local loop area. Cien will dominate for at least the next year or at least compete heavily. The problem is they do not know how to turn profits and that will eventually kill them. Cien will be a great short after they ever announce a split and then run up a tad. Now if the end signal needs to go to (or convert to cable), that's where (hlit) HARMONICS DOMINATES COMPLETELY. NO ONE REALLY WANTS TO COMPETE IN THIS MARKET. Most companies have left JDSU lead their market and HLIT own theirs. They have what is known as a HFC cable HYBRID FIBER COAX. This upgrades the old 1 way cable to 2 way and allows the data after it reaches the house to be returned via FIBER. Therefore, cable in, fiber out, thus HARMONICS and that is why hlit is a stud. Do not let 1 analyst fool you. Everyone will eventually be concerned about growth %, but HLIT has no place to go but up, and the biggies...csco have everything to lose, or go acquire someone to keep showing revenue growth. They aren't stupid. Don't be paniced because HLIT will rebound within 2-3 weeks although it broke through a technical barrier. I expect the funds to cool off for 2 weeks and then buy big. RULE OF THUMB...GOOD NEWS LASTS 2 DAYS...BAD NEWS ONLY 2 WEEKS SO HANG IN THERE. NOW, This is the fiber to cable flowchart?..CABLE LOCAL LOOP IS : 1-CABLETV/BROADBAND FACILITY?..2-FIBERLINE?..GRADELEVEL EQUIP?3-MOREFIBER?CONVERSION(CHNL AND HLIT)?.NOW HYBRID CABLE(HFC GOING OUT)?.ACTIVE BROADBAND EQUIPMENT?HFC?.PASSIVE RF ELECTRONICS(ORTL)?JUST BEFORE HOUSE?CUSTOMER (ATHM ETC.). The players are in the equipment end are obviously jdsu, cien, nt, glw. lu, csco at the beginning end. The middle for cable is mostly hlit, afci(prior to coax) if fiber, oak(glw) and at the end was ortl (lu).Now for fiber don?t forget the manufacturers, occf, glw, nt, to name a few. There isn't enough to go around. IFCI digs the ditches and then manages the systems, CHNL owns all the ugly boxes around the equipment at the curbs, CHNL also owns the connectors at every juncture. AFCI is on the other side of the fence. Technologies such as telephone (unlike cable a bit) Digital Loop Carriers(DLC)?this is AFCI?SYSTEMS ENABLE FIBER OPTIC SYSTEMS TO SERVICE FROM SEVERAL HUNDRED TO SEVERAL THOUSAND CUSTOMERS. Next generation ? fiber to the curb? ?FTTC?, systems dedicate fiber optic facilities to customer groups of less than 20, while ? fiber to the home? ? FTTH ? goes 1 step further by providing dedicated fiber lines (DSL,ADSL OR FIBERON(only nxlk and arcc have this, it is the future).Therefore, all in all , only the start has began, the CIEN,NT,LU,CSCO,GLW,SDLI(SUBSEA), gets the signal started and turns dark to light. THEN comes the loop > or really the branching out from the main line. This is AFCI,HLIT ARE JUST GETTING TO STAGE II IF YOU WANT TO CALL IT THAT. How many of you have DSL? It?s not there yet? my point exactly It's all coming.
