Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Young who wrote (66346)	5/17/2000 12:36:00 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Updated Wed May 17 09:09 ET NYMEX Oil Pre-Opg: Lower amid mixed API, DOE crude stock data OPENING CALL: Crude oil futures: Down 25-30 cents per barrel Heating oil: Unchanged to up 25 points per gallon Gasoline: Down 25-50 points per gallon By Peter Rosenthal, BridgeNews New York--May 17--NYMEX crude oil futures are expected to move lower Wednesday amid mixed reports on crude stocks from both the American Petroleum Institute and the U.S. Department of Energy. API reported that crude stocks fell last week, while the DOE showed a modest increase. Traders are also said to be taking profits after Jun crude failed to close above the key $30.00 mark. * * * "We failed at $30.00, the question is can this lower call hold up," a broker said. The latest inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute shows crude stocks fell 2.2 million barrels last week and inventories of distillate fuel decreased 656,000 barrels. Inventories of gasoline rose 629,000 barrels. (Story .1898) East Coast stocks of reformulated gasoline--the basis for NYMEX futures contracts, which are deliverable at the New York harbor--rose 596,000 barrels last week, which may ease some concerns about an impending summer shortage. However, the Department of Energy reported Wednesday that crude and gasoline stocks increased, in line with market expectations. Jun crude has initial support at $29.60, then at $29.40 and $29.00. Refinery operations increased 1.3 basis points last week to 93.8% of capacity as domestic oil companies boost output ahead of the busy summer driving season. With profit margins continuing to widen, those plants should continue to step up production. East Coast cash margins, for instance, rose to $9.38 per barrel Tuesday, from $8.78 the prior day, according to a BridgeNews calculation. A narrowing premium for June crude to July is also adding pressure to the market, although the spread on London's IPE was much wider when Jun Brent expired on Tuesday. "I don't see a big selloff, today should be a consolidating day," a broker said. "At this point it's a little bit more technical than anything else." Direction may also be related to the expiration of Jun options contracts. As of the end of trading Monday, the last day for which data are available, there were 11,283 lots on $29.00 calls, by far the largest amount on either calls or puts near the current price. There were 5,945 lots on $29.00 puts. Resistance is expected again at $30.00. NYMEX Jun crude ended the overnight Access session down 31c at $29.42 a barrel. Jun heating oil fell 34 points to 76.50c a gallon, while Jun gasoline ended down 31 points at 98.00c. At 0846 ET, IPE Jul Brent was down 26c at $27.84. End UPCOMING: --NYMEX Jun crude futures expire Monday; Jun crude options today. Jun product futures expire May 31, Jun product options May 25. IPE Jul Brent crude futures expire June 15; Jul crude options expire June 12. --Commodity Futures Trading Commission commitment of traders data for the two weeks ended Tuesday are due out after 1530 ET Friday. IN THE NEWS Story Number Headline ------ -------- .14702 BP Amoco to restart UK Grangemouth oil refinery unit next week .12361 Iran, Kuwait, Qatar to meet full June term crude supply to Japan .25943 Formosa to start 730,000-bpd RFCC end June on construction delay .24378 Local trader said cause of Klein's losses on NYBOT .1898 API Review: Crude, distillate stockpile declines supportive .22383 Planning for Venezuela OPEC leaders' summit seen in chaos .14109 Saudis increasing crude volumes to Europe by few percent in June

To: Michael Young who wrote (66346)	5/17/2000 12:51:00 PM
From: Archie Meeties	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Soros is clueless.

To: Michael Young who wrote (66346)	5/17/2000 2:30:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 95453

Great; another ankle biting Chihuahua... <<. So I guess Soros was looking for Naz 6500 when he loaded to the gills with tech stocks? That was the "reality" he appeared to be forecasting.>> ? I'm not sure I get your point ? Druckenmiller & Roditis felt the pressure to compete with those managers who were riding the tech wave - they did and they got hit like every other manager in the tech meltdown of late. Nothing more,nothing less. What Soros has refused to do - is to continue to expose himself and the fund to this game - he refuses to continue to play the "new paradigm" game and shut her down. <<And yes, Robertson did pick the wrong stocks. Most of his value investing peers managed to perform well enough to stay in the game. He didn't.>> Robertson has legendary performance that has so significantly outperformed the market over such a long period of time that it is moronic to say that one bad "season" of stockpicking and/or performance forced him out - ludicrous. That would be like calling for McGwire's retirement because he goes 0 for 9 over a couple of games. Robertson is clearly on record for exiting because the present bubbleonians will not send inflows into value funds - and there are virtually no value funds that can possibly compete returnwise with the "bubbleonian" funds of late. What old economy value fund , or stocks did well in this environment of late ? Sure, he did make some poor individual choices here shorterm within the value sector; but the nature of the Bubble - game and the non-interest and lack of participation by the market in giving any value to traditional old economy companies is why he left. I don't think many other true value investors did very well during the same time period and they certainly did not compete with the market averages. I think Robertson, Soros & Sir John Templeton along with Buffet - have all clearly conveyed their feelings on "new paradigm" investing and the valuation multiples of untried, unproven companies. While Roditis & Druckenmiller got their shot to "chase the Naz Dragon" - Soro's ended the game refusing to play the bubble. Buffet has steadfastly weathered the storm and has a huge Silver position. Templeton called & timed the Internet bubble stock collapse near perfectly. I think what separated Robertson & Buffet in particular is that they refused to expose "OPM" - other peoples money - to the risk & valuations in this present "game." Robertson left and Buffet refuses to participate. Give them credit for some principles. The vast majority of money managers could give a rats ass about YOUR MONEY - they are incentivized and compete against peer managers and the markets last quarter return - mutual funds are rated by the day, week and month ! What the new paradigm has done is to create a new class of reckless money managers who have little risk aversion since they are playing with your money - not theirs; and they have bought into the "new paradigm" of valuing a 6 month old company - fresh of the whiteboard, with perhaps a couple of million $ in sales, no earnings,no operating history - at $8 Billion .... Kudo's for Robertson, Buffet & Co for sticking to what they believe in and realizing that risk certainly does exist and that risk is greatly exemplified by Druckenmiller & Roditis's chasing the Tech Bubble at the wrong time - and Kudo's for Soro's for also refusing to play the game and shutting it down. <<You use other bad examples to talk your gold position. >> ... oh jump up and bite that ankle big guy...get a mouthfull. Talking my gold positon ? Give me a break... yada, yada, yada.... aren't we all in essence talking "our positions" anytime we make any comments ? It's hardly as I pumped a particular company - Bullsky asked for my list and I think I made it clear that the Basket approach was the way to play it. So Mikey; - let me guess; you are a techie who got crushed in the tech blow off - and hates someone stepping in from out of the sector - picking up the fresh meat off the bones - and walking away with easy profits while you lick your wounds ? - and especially one who walks away with the profits - acknowledging that its a bubble that will still end badly. re: ==================================================================== <<To: John Pitera who wrote (662) From: Michael Young Friday, Mar 31, 2000 1:02 PM ET Reply # of 1624 It sure feels like one of the most painful weeks ever. I've held small positions this time around, but it is still painful. Just picked up some VTSS with a tight stop. The semis have the earnings for at least the next few quarters. MIKE>> ================================================================== Boy, Mike - you sure got your ass whipsawed walking in on March 31st thinking that was a bottom to buy.... well, at least we realize where your angst comes from. Late to the patch, walked in the the tech buzz saw of the April Implosion - maybe someday you'll get it right ? - but, I doubt it. ... and we should listen to YOU about the evil of owning some Gold Stocks as both an offensive & a defensive position in this market ? - yeah sure. Also,as far as my comments wanting to enduce - "panic" selling in the Oilpatch ? Wrong - no panic, just prudent profit taking. This sector has traded in volatile legs for 3 years. We just had a very nice move here and are a bit toppy by any fundametnal, or technical perspective. Simply review the OSX earnings here today as oppossed to the last time we saw OSX 130. - very nearly kind of .com-ish imho (VBG). I said at OSX 115ish - that I would take 10-30% off the board on each 7.5-10% move up. And guess what ? We still aren't there yet - I am still taking profits... and at 21% to 30% from OSX 115 - meaning OSX - 145 to 150; you can have it all - gladly ! Tree's don't grow straight to the sky... SII a nice Buck & a half short. Again, SII BJS CAM on any new highs, or $3ish intra-day pops are no-brainer shorts. No "PANIC" - just not enough Institutional Buyers from the Energy Speciality Funds at these levels (why would they chase here - they won't/aren't - but, they will buy laggards however), nor enough momementeum money "in play" here - to cause any type of an Oilpatch breakout to any major degree into the June OPEC meeting, or the June Fed meeting. Just my opinion, I haven't criticized anyone here - other than responding to their sarcasm, or ankle biting... Ciao~