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To: SargeK who wrote (66357)	5/19/2000 2:10:00 PM
From: SargeK	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

FGH - Response to a Yahoo Poster inquiry "Playing Devil's Advocate by: SargeK 5/19/00 1:56 pm Msg: 7610 of 7610 Contrary Indicators ??? In the 3 mini cycles beginning in January, each time the red (sell) signals predominated, a buying opportunity was presented, conversely each time the green (buy) signals predominated, a selling opportunity was present. quotes.barchart.com Comment: Perhaps this time around will be the exception; but, I am not betting on it. Rising interest rates. It's not nice to bet against the Fed. FGH is highly leveraged with $301.2M in LT Debt and another $193M in (Goodwill???) versus SE of $244M while a significant portion of their facilities and manpower resources are tied up with 4 unprofitable semi's (which will not be completed until later next year). Possible delay in GOM FPSO approval does NOT help the situation. Cash Flow appears to continue a downward trend with the Company becoming more reliant on non-core asset sales and tax refunds while (domestic) backlog also trends downward. Back out the $110M Chinese barge which does not engage U.S. facilities and the picture becomes worse. I am long term bullish; but, I am also a realist. Increasing interest rates WILL effect the FGH customer base and buying decisions. Good luck SargeK P.S. - moshaky, I'll continue to light trade in the 7 1/2 to 8 range (as long as this condition exists); but, will NOT be reestablishing core positions until I see the 6s OR unless some significant variables change (overall market, industry trends, new (SIGNIFICANT ORDERS, etc.) of which I am currently unaware. In any event I will NOT be as heavily concentrated in this issue as was the previous case WHERE I was compelled to both trade and increase the ante to change RED to BLACK. FWIW" post.messages.yahoo.com