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Technology Stocks : Rockwell-Spins off Conexant (CNXT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David W. Taylor who wrote (1089)	5/17/2000 3:40:00 PM
From: MeDroogies	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2013

Nope, I don't trust the #'s either. Not many people do. However, almost all literature in economic circles over the last 3 years has focussed on how the gov't is OVER counting inflation. That is, how we've been in a deflationary environment over the last 2-3 years. I don't know Bill Fleckenstein, though I am sure he has a number of adherents. I'm also sure that if I haven't heard of him, he is probably not altogether consistent in terms of how his views match what actually occurs. Like Granville, or others of that nature. That said, it may be that we were in a deflationary environment that is now suddenly inflationary. At this juncture, you have to question whether inflation is powerful enough/looming so ominously that it is an overriding concern. I don't know and I don't care, to be honest. Because it doesn't matter that much. What matters more is productivity. As long as productivity gains (which, BTW, in the service sector are UNDERcounted because they are not as quantifiable) continue apace with greater employment, inflation is unlikely to take off. Secondly, you have to consider WHAT rate of inflation is dangerous. For much of the 80's we were in the 5-6% range, and it wasn't such an ill wind that blew. Of course, in the 90's we've gotten used to 2%, so 5-6 is probably considered high. But 3.7%? Not so much. (remember, I'm comparing apples to apples, so if you don't trust the #'s now, you didn't trust them then). I'm a believer in the Fisher school of money management, which accounts for ALL markets when determining inflation. However, in the US the CPI is usually the standard, and the stockmarket is usually left out. If you account for the stockmarket over the last year, inflation is still not that rampant, since our gains are about 3.7%(depending on your gauge). Over the previous years, it was much greater, but that only represents PENT UP demand...not true demand. That is, the potential that cash can be freed up and spent. Which it has, to some degree, through loans against securities. The remainder is inconsequential at this point of the discussion. All said, I'm curious to find out where prices are increasing that AREN'T being counted. BTW, there is a school of thought (that I'm impartial about) that claims rate increases increase short-term inflation as people seek to buy homes or spend cash as they expect higher prices.

To: David W. Taylor who wrote (1089)	5/17/2000 7:13:00 PM
From: R Cesar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2013

David, Are you really Fleck using an alias ?

To: David W. Taylor who wrote (1089)	5/17/2000 8:06:00 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2013

I'll add my 2 cents here. First, we are WAY off topic by discussing macro-economics and oil here and then trying, in some very direct way, to relate them as a cause/effect on CNXT's future. I really don't see it that way, though I could be seeing what I want to see! The rise in petroleum+gas prices has not been a seasonal event and it's VERY possible that we are facing an extremely tough consumer 'pricing' environment for oil and Nat. Gas(NG) going forward. Current storage figures for NG are dramatically lower this year then they have been the past 2 years. During these last 2 years, Oil, Gasoline and NG consumption has been increasing. Going forward, demand will continue to increase with all the new NG fired power plants being built throughout the country, new home building with NG instead of electricity, Gas-guzzling SUVs, etc.... When Oil dropped to $10/bbl, the industry pretty much stopped drilling. They shut down marginal wells and stopped most of the capital spending in the industry. As a result, we are now faced with the very real possibilities that we won't be able to have sufficient supplies to meet demand and that our lack of stockpiles for winter demand will be such that the futures market will keep prices higher than almost anyone currently expects. For NG to be priced over $3.50/Mcf at this time of year is pretty amazing, in my opinion. One simply can't dismiss the rise in NG and Oil prices as a seasonal issue and, BTW, these are very real, inflationary pressures on our entire economy. If NG prices continue to rise into the winter, the cost of heating houses in the US will be the highest ever seen and, I can rest assured, there will be a great outcry from the populous. The naive-joe-six-pack will blame OPEC-but a very large portion of the blame should rest on our own government, who didn't give a rats ass when the petroleum/NG industry was struggling due to the extremely low prices seen during 1998. Massive layoffs were happening in the oil business during 1998 and early 1999 but cheap oil made our country very happy, 'so who cares'! Right now, there is a lack of qualified personel to staff the growing demand within the oil/NG industry. Very few cared about the oil industry while prices were cheap and people could fill their gas tanks and heating oil storage tanks at rock bottom prices during the winter of 98-99. Our economy was booming, the stock market was soaring and commodity prices were dirt cheap! Things have turned around 180 degrees for oil/NG prices since then. Our Energy Secretary, Mr. Richardson, is now pleading with OPEC to increase production. Funny how no one cared about the oil producing countries problems when oil was $10/bbl. "OPEC MUST INCREASE PRODUCTION NOW" is the cry from Washington these days. Our government still fails to show serious support for our own Oil/NG industry. If they did, we might not be in such a difficult situation. The above has little to do with the fundamentals for CNXT going forward. We will be faced with a more difficult environment for all businesses, CNXT included. Having said this, I still completely disagree with the premise that CNXT is 'overpriced' at this level. All I can do is wait, because I know that over the next few quarters(and years) that this company will prove I'm correct. Just my opinion. Michael