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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eric K. who wrote (42460)	5/17/2000 9:19:00 PM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Hi all; Somehow, we managed to miss an industry editorial at simmtester.com : Conclusion March 22, 2000 Judging from the technical and price position of memories, I would conclude that RDRAM would be 5-6% of the total DRAM market this year. DDR memory will occupy 20% of the market in 4th quarter 2,000. That will mean 6% of the DRAM market for the year. The rest of the DRAM market will be filled by the familiar PC100 and PC133 SDRAM memories. In the year of 2001, the picture would be quite different. DDR will come into price parity with PC133 SDRAM. At that point, I am predicting a 40% DDR occupation in Q3, 2001. That will put the annual percentage to 25%. At that time RDRAM will still only maintain a 5-6% position. ... Since capacity is still plentiful, price level on mainstream memory SDRAM and SDRAM modules will be stable. Periodic segmental shortages will occur. However, these shortages will be balanced within 10-12 weeks period (the average production to market time). Rambus DRAM price will stay high keeping it from realizing bigger market share. simmtester.com They are not a disinterested party. They make testers for memory modules, including a RIMM tester. They have a new product with an adaptor available for RIMMs or DDR DIMMs this quarter: simmtester.com Interesting PC100/133 clock reference: simmtester.com They are a sponsor of tomorrow's DDR summit, and have numerous editorials and comments of various sorts: simmtester.com -- Carl

To: Eric K. who wrote (42460)	5/18/2000 3:12:00 AM
From: Tenchusatsu	Respond to of 93625

Eric, <I don't think Intel has supply constraints. I think it is relying on a five year old core that has been pushed to its maximal performance limits.> If that's the case, then Intel would have a surplus of low-speed parts (700 MHz and below) and would have to move them at low prices. But that's not the case. Intel's supply shortage is across all speeds, including the low speeds. Even AMD is experiencing higher-than-expected low-end demand. You see, the demand isn't concentrated in the high-end, or else your argument of an obsolete five-year-old core would hold water. Tenchusatsu