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Strategies & Market Trends : Three Amigos Stock Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JKraft who wrote (19948)	5/19/2000 2:02:00 PM
From: Sergio H	Respond to of 29382

<Is anything hot out there or are you waiting for better times to invest? > Joanie, only sector that we've been loading up on is natural gas. It's not the only sector that is going up, but it could be the safest play. Simple supply/demand economics. This sector is moving faster and quicker than I thought it would, but its still early enough to get in, although profit taking some time next week is very likely. Might be a good time to open a position. <Does WCOM look good yet? > It's looking better. The valuation ratios are now very attractive and WCOM looks even more promising in light of the probability that WCOM/FON will need to sell off some assets in order to get clearance for their merger. Very nice to hear from you Sweet J. :-) Sergio

To: JKraft who wrote (19948)	5/20/2000 2:26:00 PM
From: Sergio H	Respond to of 29382

Joanie, more on WCOM. It seems to be picking up more support. I would like to take a look at money flow and see if the institutions are backing up their research with their money. The site I use for money flow information is upgrading today and not available. Recent research on WCOM: Bear Stearns Equity Research, Thursday, May 18, 2000, 7:30 am EST WorldCom, Inc. (WCOM - $42) Buy U.S. Antitrust Action Market Cap: $120.2 Billion Index: S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, Russell 1000 William Deatherage/Bette Massick Colombo - Telecommunications Services U.S. antitrust enforcers have recommended blocking WorldCom? s buyout of Sprint Corp. (FON, Buy) and have submitted a formal recommendation to the DoJ? s antitrust chief, Joel Klein. Mr. Klein is either positioning to block the merger or simply establishing a strong starting position for negotiations with the companies. We think the latter is the case. This action probably signals the start of serious talks about merger conditions. This is still not good news and marginally raises the probability the merger is not successfully concluded either because the government moves to stop it or WorldCom is unwilling to agree to tough conditions. We would now give the merger a 50/50 chance, down from 60/40. In our view, the market has already discounted worse than a 50/50 probability that the merger occurs, due to the spread on the deal. Without factoring in time or the value of the collar, FON has approximately $18 of upside with the merger and only $8 of downside without the merger. Though we believe the market has effectively discounted the news, both stocks could decline modestly today. We continue to rate both WorldCom and Sprint Buy. The upside is clear if the merger goes through. If the deal unravels, we think FON has good fundamental support at $50, but would soon find a new buyer at $70 or more. WCOM has good fundamental support at the current price, but would decline probably 10% initially if the deal broke and should rebound thereafter. If this deal falls apart, WorldCom itself could become an acquiree in the consolidation process. Also, take a look at research offered by Green Mountain Asset Management stockresearch.com