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To: ahhaha who wrote (22325)5/18/2000 4:51:00 AM
From: FR1  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 29970
 
How could the stock market ignore all the interest rate advance in the last two years and suddenly recognize that rates count?

Ah, IMHO, I get the feeling that the buying and selling is now almost all centered on fed fears.

Maybe it goes something like this:

People worry that interest rates are finally getting high enough now to do real damage to some businesses. Whether true or not, you have to agree that at some point rates will be high enough to damage real estate and that influences many other businesses.

Therefore everyone looks very carefully at primary indicators (wages, employment, retail sales, PPI, CPI).

Once the indicators are in we get a relief rally because at least people think they know where we are.

On May 11 retail sales were in and showed a slowdown. People felt this would mean that the PPI and CPI would also be kind so we got a rally on May 11 and it continued each day through the rate hike.

AG indicated more hikes to come so we got a sell off the day after.

Now it is limbo until next month indicators are in.
Low volume. More down than up in the last part of June.

Summer rally can't really start until after the June hike. After June hike AG goes into hibernation for a few months and elections are close at hand - this should take pressure off worrying about AG.

I am not saying it makes sense. I'm just saying rates are high and going higher so the market is run by what the fed feels like doing.

The fundamentals of business don't matter when fear (or joy) runs the market.