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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mr.Fun who wrote (35698)	5/18/2000 9:25:00 AM
From: GVTucker	Respond to of 77400

Mr. Fun, RE: As for semis, the chip makers ALWAYS believe the up-phase will last longer than it does. I think the sector is safe through the summer, but I'm planning to take money off the table by 4Q. I laugh at this, because not only do chip makers believe this, but also chip analysts. The old analyst saw, "We're only in the third inning of this game" has been repeated many times, but I don't think I have ever heard an analyst say "We're in the ninth inning."

To: Mr.Fun who wrote (35698)	5/18/2000 10:30:00 AM
From: The Phoenix	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 77400

What is an appropriate multiple? (50-60 would make historical sense) 50-60 even if Cisco turns in another 55% YoY quarter? 50-60 times next years earnings or last 12 months? Seems to me that 50-60 for a company with these kind of growth rates is pretty low.. given that GE's is 50... heck even most financials and oils these days are trading at 30ish and they are showing single digit growth. Just wondering how you come to 50-60...given growth. Is this based upon an assumption that Cisco can not keep up this pace? Then of course the next question is - what if they do? for say the next 2-3 quarters... then do you re-evaluate your decision? OG

To: Mr.Fun who wrote (35698)	5/18/2000 11:34:00 PM
From: Tera Bit	Respond to of 77400

Mr Fun. as always, informative and enlightening. Did any smaller companies at N+I pique your interest? I saw that you have been buying JNPR and I personally think that will payoff nicely. I have not reviewed Sycamore's numbers in detail but they look quite good. Do you have any interest in the other "up and comers"? (SCMR, FDRY, etc.) Incidentally, I don't think CSCO goes much lower from here. Their domination of the enterprise space is near total. IMO, their products are getting more traction in the carrier space which may come at the expense of either LU or NT. I think the law of large numbers will moderate CSCO's stock appreciation relative to someone like JNPR but they will continue to do well until a credible challenger encroaches on their bread and butter. Having street puppets on CNBC and every biz rag pumping the stock helps CSCO too.