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Strategies & Market Trends : Market Direction Predictions and BS guesses -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SBHX who wrote (59)	5/18/2000 9:49:00 AM
From: the Chief	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 234

Scared but Hopeful.....its true,...the SI cloaking device is a superb function very few people know that you obviously have a "good grip"...<gggg> But, I must go back to what I feel is a failing in "ones" analysis of the markets at large. Much like on the "other thread" people dwell to much on the obvious...which is "teckies". Teckies did not propel the Dow to +10,000. Teckies will get their just dues in the short hall, I agree, Nasdaq will obviously suffer the greatest, but how that is translated into a "bear market" or pending death is a mystery to me, and continues to be. We can't be 'selective" in our analysis of the markets. My belief for many years, and it has held me oin good stead is, analysis of the "whole" without getting down into individuals. The best in the world do not clutter themselves with endless graphing to arrive at a conclusion as to market direction. They use an "understanding of the market, and the people that support it...the investor". I never believed in the term "Investor capitulation, and still don't! The lack of "liquidity" that is so often quoted in this market, was aproduct of Greenspan impregnating to many "dollars" into the economy prior to Y2K, he is now attempting to "correct his mistake". This, in the shortterm will create illusions of concern, but will be sorted out before July. Thanks for taking the time. I will comment on your specifics as the day unwinds. the Chief

To: SBHX who wrote (59)	5/18/2000 10:18:00 AM
From: the Chief	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 234

If you really want to figure out why the Tech sector is so bearish, look at two aspects : IPO lockups and employee stock options. #1. I'm starting to see a pattern of IPO lockups that releases shares MUCH bigger than initial float, in some cases taking over 100X (even 200X) of avg daily vol. #2. If you look closely, you'll also find MANY tech companies with IPO < 3 yrs with generous employee stock options. Perhaps even some older companies who have to match these stock options to retain valuable employees I think that is exactly why I find failing with the "other thread". Were we in a "bear market" when Oil was $10.00 a barrel? Why didn't we all bail out "oil was bearish"??? So why, why does the "other thread" believe people will push this market into a bear because of of couple of Tulips called Inuts? Lets deal with that question first. the Chief