To: ali who wrote (3163 ) 5/19/2000 8:57:00 AM From: Natedog Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 4269
A MUST READ FROM TODAYS GLOBE AND MAIL. I have a few comments afterwards. Like a strike in sudbury would send our find through the roof! They also don't show the graphs, but in short, supply is dropping fast and prices are rising even faster.. Mining shares defy demand Base metal stock lags commodities' strength; inventories driven down to critical levels ALLAN ROBINSON Mining Reporter Friday, May 19, 2000 The share prices of Canada's base metal mining companies are lagging a powerful global demand for commodities during the past few months that has driven inventories of some metals down to critical levels. The only thing holding the sector back in the stock market is a general lack of interest among investors, mining analysts say. "The commodities and the equities could explode," said David Davidson, a mining analyst for Newcrest Capital Inc. "There's no question that the metal prices remain solid." The inventory levels for a wide range of metals such as nickel, aluminum and zinc are down dramatically. Even the mountainous supplies of copper are slowly being reduced. The price of nickel has surged to $4.80 (U.S.) a pound, which is close to its 10-year high, up from $4.32 on April 20 as worries grow about a possible strike at Inco Ltd.'s mines in Sudbury, Ont. Copper is trading at 83.3 cents a pound, up from 74 cents in mid-April. Aluminum has crept up to 68.5 cents a pound from 64.1 cents about four weeks ago, but down from a 79-cent high on Feb. 1.Supplies are so tight that any shipment delays or unplanned smelter shutdowns could create a squeeze and cause metal prices to jump, said Terence Ortslan of Montreal-based mining consultants TSO & Associates. "We can't take any mishaps in the mining sector," Mr. Ortslan said. "We are reaching critical threshold levels." But analysts remain at a loss as to what it will take to trigger a renewed interest among investors. "It has been a lemming market," said Manford Mallory, a mining analyst with Research Capital Corp. "Everyone starts going in the same direction at the same time." Mr. Mallory is not worried that rising interest rates in the United States will hurt base metals. He said it is a sign of a strong economy, which traditionally is good for metal prices. "The rise in interest rates would be a kind of an excuse, [for the lack of interest in mining shares]" Mr. Mallory said. "Historically [rising rates] are not a negative at this point in the cycle. As interest rates edge up, historically mining stocks have done quite well." Scotia Capital Inc. said in a recent report that the "synchronous world economic-growth scenario" in Japan, China, the United States and Europe supports continued high levels of metals consumption, which could lead to higher prices in the next 18 months. Nickel is expected to be the hottest metal, in large part because of stong demand from the stainless steel industry, which uses about two-thirds of the nickel produced around the world. Scotia Capital has been recommending as strong buys nickel producers Inco Ltd., and Falconbridge Ltd.; as well as Alcan Aluminium Ltd., Rio Algom Ltd., Noranda Inc., Cominco Ltd. and Sherritt International Corp. RBC Dominion Securities Inc. said in its Global Base Metal Equity and Commodity Report Card earlier this month that "a rotation into the metals sector is likely and that a catalyst may well be the appearance of strong earnings" in the coming quarters. "It is our belief that, short of near-recession conditions, the limited supply of some metals will become more obvious and the key driver for metal prices," RBC said. However, RBC warns that it is more confident there will be higher prices for aluminum and zinc than copper and nickel this year. RBC also suggests its research work indicates that late in the economic cycle, when there is a high demand for metals, investors focus more on the level of profits than the commodity prices. Moreover, if there is a shift of money out of technology into mining, RBC said the results could be dramatic. "We recently calculated the market capitalization of all the world's base metal and gold equities at about $220-billion." By comparison, Nortel Networks Corp. has a market capitalization of $157-billion