To: Cirruslvr who wrote (111473 ) 5/18/2000 1:15:00 PM From: Petz Respond to of 1573223
Another analyst ups target price from 100 to 120, raises estimates, reiterates BUY. Gerald Klauer Mattison & Co., John M. Garaghty, analyst - Y2000 estimates raised from 5.50 to 5.55 (Whoopee) untaxed, eqv to 3.83 taxed - Q2 estimate 1.22 vs. 1.20 prior, Q3,Q4 = 1.40,1.79 - Y2001 estimate 5.20 vs 4.74 prior (taxed) - expects flash revenue growth of 11% sequentially despite AMD estimate of "high single digits" - CPU #'s: 13.8M Athlon @ASP of about $150, 14.8M million K6 units@$50. - if PC market grows in Q2, they say their estimates of 5% Q2 rev. growth will be conservative The report contains this paragraph which is riddled with inaccuracies:o AMD is on target to introduce two new Athlon parts in the second quarter. The Duron (previously Spitfire) processor will target the value segment of the market, and the Thunderbird will target the performance end. The Thunderbird part will be made in Dresden as that facility ramps from its current rate of about 5K units/week. Actually, it will be made in BOTH facilities. WAY OFF on units/week! The Duron part will be made at Fab 25 in Austin, where current Athlon production is ramping. The current Athlon has STOPPED RAMPING - no wafer starts. Both parts will be socket (versus slot) based and should have greater L2 (Level 2) on-chip cache than comparable Intel products, according to management. Wrong with both statements! The Dresden facility is key to AMD's ambitious production targets, especially in 2001. The facility is on schedule and is currently operating at less than 10% of its capacity. Slightly OVER 10% based on Sander's 600 WSPW. Only a small number of Durons and Thunderbirds should ship this quarter. Well, at least these guys seem to know something about flash. Petz