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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: double-plus-good who wrote (51167)	5/18/2000 2:26:00 PM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

double-plus-good: I would have to take a more than cursory look at the issues you mentioned before giving my take. I don't have time right now. However, I would suggest you keep an eye on the IXF.X (NASDAQ Financial 100 Index). It is in a downtrend technically since April 98. However, the top was re-tested in May 99. Since the index has resumed its downtrend. It is now testing a shorter-term falling resistance line from the Nov 99 high connected to the April 00 high and extended down and right. If the resistance line holds your FA could prove correct. If it gives way, obviously the index could be heading higher, at least short-term. An index to keep an eye on! Note: The COMPX and NYA look to be mounting at least an intraday rally! CSCO and INTC seem to be rallying off support. See the charts I posted earlier today. However, INTC is now up against a falling resistance line depicted on the chart I posted earlier as well. Regards, LG

To: double-plus-good who wrote (51167)	5/18/2000 7:12:00 PM
From: Michael Watkins	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

d+g, I know you asked LG this but I'll add my two technical cents in as well. If you plan to position trade a short on these, simply follow each up day with a sell stop (mental or otherwise) say 1/2 below the day's low. I.e. AXP today (thursday) had a higher low and higher high than the day before. An up day. If price takes out the daily low immediately after an up day, its highly likely that it has reversed -- particularly when the stock is moving at or near recent swing highs or a down trending moving average (like 13 day or 20 day). I would not generally recommend that you use this strategy except at aforementioned tests of tops/and failed rallies in a downtrend. Simply invert the procedure and setup requirements for going long. If you get taken into the trade, your stop will be the high of the day plus 1/2 of the bar you used to position yourself. This way you let the stock prove to you it wants to go down, rather than getting short in advance of a move that may never come. fwiw mw