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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (35264)	5/18/2000 5:18:00 PM
From: Lone Star	Respond to of 70976

You are correct, sir, there really is no other reason. Market timers may be looking to exit now, assume Uncle Al and the historical summer doldrums to ensue, and enter lower. Too risky for me, I'll just hang on for 3-5 more years.

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (35264)	5/18/2000 8:45:00 PM
From: Wes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Brian, --------------------------------------------------------- I believe you left out the real reason AMAT is depressed- everyone has been shaken by the Naz decline. I doubt very much whether sellers are making their sell decisions thinking the cycle in semis is nearly over....it has just begun and 300mm is not even a factor yet. AMAT is down because the overall market is down, pure and simple. --------------------------------------------------------- True, the decline in AMAT over the last few weeks has been precipitated by the shakeout in the market overall. But I would also argue that the runnup seen earlier this spring was also driven in large part by the momentum of the market. AMAT had already had a nice run in 98-99 in anticipation of a strong semi-equipment cycle; it was then driven even further by euphoria in the Naz and tech stocks. Now, as the "bubble" deflated and momentum turned sour, everyone is now forced to look more critically at their stocks and examine the factors specific to companies and to the businesses they are in. No longer can investors rely on the overall "good feeling" to lift their stocks. This "good feeling" was mainly a stock market phenomenon. Now notice that different groups have been punished differently, depending on their PEs and the soundness of their businesses. With the dot-coms, for example, concerns about lack of profitability, competition, sound business fundamentals quickly replaced the "internet speculation", and the net stocks have consequently been hit hard, with many losing more than half their values in a short time. With equipment stocks, the business news has gotten as good as it's gonna get for 2000 and has already been factored into the stock. Since the news can't get any better, the stock was priced to perfection and has limited upward potential (esp. when market momentum is gone). So back come the concerns about visibility beyond 2000 and the knowledge that the industry experiences wild girations--ups and downs. Yes, I do think this has weighed heavily on the stock price. Add to these concerns the specter of higher interest rates and possible slowdown in the economy, which can mean softer demand for things like semi-chips, which or course means slower growth and maybe even decline in equipment orders. What it looks like these days with the volume so low is that many potential buyers are hesitant to go into the stock at this time because of all the uncertainty, so even a relatively small volume of sellers/traders can cause to drop sharply. We've seen many days in which the stock would hold steady for most of the day on quiet volume but then be pummeled several points within the last half hour or so of trading (kinda like today). I suspect this downward tending drift will continue for some time, until some hard information (good or bad) about 2001 starts to emerge. That and only that will be the driver for the stock (up or down). We hope that the industry cycle has another leg of strong growth for 2001 and beyond, especially with the long delayed upgrade to 300mm, but we really cannot predict if it will happen. Historically, not even the industry trade group can predict how the next stage will play out. We just have to wait and see and have faith in the long term. Watch and think 2001 and beyond.