To: Boplicity who wrote (10395 ) 5/18/2000 9:13:00 PM From: Webster Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 13582
Greg Your question regarding Q's stock price - How long can you sit on your money doing nothing? Many people who understand QCOM are willing to sit with their money doing nothing, including me. Many people, like myself have been long on QCOM since 1991. From 1991 to late 1993 QCOM had a nice run up from approximately $1.00 to $5.00 a five fold increase. In 1994 the FUD began and we sat virtually dormant for close to five years. I suppose many people left qcom or traded the stock. However many of us worked the business model of what could be (eps)- we also had a belief that qcom's management, specifically Dr. J and Andrew Viterbi were the most credible people in the industry who were not only speaking but doing and accomplishing important work with cdma. Our patience paid off in 1999. QCOM was the only company in January 1999 whose stock traded ($6.37) with a forward PE of 5 based on FY00 EPS (of $1.15) - yet the FUD was still there with ERICY and others. In 1999 the dead money that laid dormant exploded. Today we find ourselves with qcom trading at $96 (83xFY00) FUD as big as it was in 1994 thru 1998. However QCOM is significantly better positioned today than it was several years ago when the entire wireless industry wanted them snuffed out. What I find most interesting today is the quietness of QCOM . I believe they are acting while others are talking (and acting less). This won't be the first time. My point is that even though I sat through dead money with qcom for 4 years, I am extremely satisfied with my total return to date from 1991. I also expect that I will be able to look back in 2004 and say the same thing, only QCOM's stock price will be significantly higher than it is today (I expect 4x based on future earnings). There may be dead periods of time where qcom's stock price does nothing or even goes down. I compare this to the alternative of having to trust the likes of Marc Cabi, Ed Snyder, Michael Ching and others who want me to put my trust (money) in them. During this dead time (and it may not necessarily be dead) we have plenty to talk about regarding qcom's role in wireless internet and we will continue to get knowledge regarding qcom's competitive position. There has been significant effort put in by many on the SI thread (ruffian, cooters, engineer, clark and many many more) These people continue to piece together the activity in wireless (including the FUD) and how it relates to qcom's competitive position. Collectively they (all of us) represent the best analysis of QCOM. Therefore I will continue to get more knowledge, ask hard questions and practice the patience that I know will pay off in qcom's future stock price appreciation. Thanks Web.