To: John Pitera who wrote (1643 ) 5/20/2000 4:29:00 PM From: IndexTrader Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 33421
John, Thanks for taking on your Time and Price Cycle study. I am really looking forward to it! Here are a few thoughts from Bill Erman (Ermanometry) LONGER TERM COMMENT Two recent turning points, 04/26 high and 05/10 low, were both one day earlier than the beginning of Ezones projected for those periods. This concerned me and we began a thorough review of our most important algorithms. This review has been completed and minor modifications have been made. Normally, I would not bore you with this "news". However, these revisions provided several unexpected benefits regarding long term analysis and I wanted you to know the basis for the following comment. Our 02/11/2000 note stated that if the market made new lows circa 04/28, from the tops that existed on 02/11 (01/03 & 01/14) it would be the longest decline since 1984. Feedback from readers indicates that what is most remembered are the words "longest decline" and the qualifying phrases are not recalled. Since 02/11 the S&P has made a new high, so the count would have to start from the BalancePoint between the DJIA high on 01/14 and the S&P high on 03/24. Our revised analysis is that the lows of 04/14 have tremendous significance. Bottom Line I believe the odds greatly favor that the lows of 04/14 will hold and new highs will be made before the market revisits the 04/14 lows. However, if these lows are broken this year, expect at least another 100 points down in the S&P, testing the 10/18/99 low. Previous notes explained the great significance of the current all-time highs. Adding the significance of 04/14 to the canvas shows that from a timing standpoint the market is between a rock and a hard place; perhaps explaining the lower highs and higher lows. Of Interest: The market declined 39 days from 08/25/87 to 10/20/87. The decline from the 01/14 - 03/24 Balancepoint to 04/14 is 39 days. The market declined 15 days from the then S&P all-time10/07/97 high to the 10/28/97 low. The S&P decline from 03/24 to 04/14 is 15 days. The market declined 36 days from the 08/07/97 - 10/07/97 BalancePoint to 10/28/97. The DJIA decline from 01/14/00 to 03/08/00 is 36 days. The "of interest" items are merely simple symmetry and do not involve our algorithms There are many other factors determining the major significance of 04/14. Also, please recall our recent comments about "right shoulders". The fact that the DJIA did not break its 03/08 low on 04/14 actually adds to the significance of 04/14. The fact that it was the largest point decline in history does not enter our analysis. Here's one more item of simple symmetry : The DJIA advanced 62 days from 10/18/99 to 01/14/00. (Please recall that this was projected as a Major Ezone.) There are 63 days from 01/14/00 to 04/14/00. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE EZONE IS 05/26/00. Willaim T. Erman