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Strategies & Market Trends : The Options Box -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Poet who wrote (489)	5/19/2000 7:48:00 AM
From: Poet	Respond to of 10876

Here's a snippet from the Thursday Option Investor newsletter: "This has become a stock-pickers market. Use the VIX as your guide and watch for those stocks that are establishing good trends and have some catalysts, such as stock splits. (The VIX is currently sitting middle of the road at 26.50). The Nasdaq will likely test 3500 in the morning tomorrow. A bounce off this level will be encouraging, but watch for light volume on expiration Friday to cause some sizable swings in individual issues. As for me, I have no agenda for trading tomorrow. The typical Friday afternoon sell-off pattern doesn't lend a lot of time for an intraday trade. You are probably more safe just taking the day off. Let's face it, that is what everyone else is doing lately." I'm going to be taking the day off from the market and will be travelling this weekend, so won't be posting. Take care, everyone, and keep up the conversation.

To: Poet who wrote (489)	5/19/2000 8:58:00 AM
From: t2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10876

Poet, I think the departure of KK from JDSU is not going to be that big of a deal any more. Just as an analyst pointed out, JDSU is now in a new phase. I think the drop in JDSU is temporary. SDLI is doing much better as there appears to be no certainty in its future while JDSU has the uncertainty (DOJ) about the ETEK acquisition. That merger has hurt JDSU stock price in a big way. Once it gets approved, JDSU should take off. There is no doubt that as people realize how SDLI has outperformed JDSU, they will either cut back on SDLI or put more money (or new money)to work in JDSU or Corning. I have seen JDSU do better than SDLI at times and vice versa. I think it will balance out by the end of the year. The business itself tells us that JDSU is in the strongest position with its broad range of products. Right now ETEK and JDSU dominate the "passive component" market---as the Corning CEO pointed out. In addition, they have acquired optical switching technology recently. Josef Straus was the CEO of JDSU Fitel, the "passive" components maker prior to the merger. He answers the hard technical questions in the conference calls. I bet he was the key in deciding what companies JDSU needed to acquire. If there was any doubt as to who was one of the brains behind this operation, his appointment to CEO clears it up. This is not to say KK was not. DR. I don't believe SDLI is even in the passives market. Overall, I would think that going into year end, JDSU will do better given how well SDL has done in the past weeks. If the merger is approved, there is no doubt in my mind that JDSU will do a lot better. Short term is not a good indicator of how it will turn out by year end. I am not holding that much JDSU right now. Nortel is my runaway favorite. However, in the coming month or two, I plan to buy a lot of JDSU. BTW--Just watched CNBC interview the CFO of Ciena. Mark thought JDSU was a competitor. The CFO quickly pointed out that JDSU is a supplier. Looks like the media puts all of the optical stocks in the same basket.