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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Phoenix who wrote (35816)	5/19/2000 10:21:00 AM
From: Bill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

Good points all. But the bear is on the verge of turning irrational. CIEN, SCMR and ADCT all posted stellar earnings last night and are being punished.

To: The Phoenix who wrote (35816)	5/19/2000 11:14:00 AM
From: lawdog	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

There is a giant sucking sound right now. That sound is liquidity draining out of the NASDOG. CSCO has a long way to descend before it is close to resembling a value. You can't just look at the 52 wk high and assume CSCO will see the light of those prices in the near future. I don't think it will, but that's just IMO. The liquidity was just too frothy before. That artificaily high liquidity is seeing some sig. reduction here. I will buy your shares for $35 and I believe that is a generous offer.

To: The Phoenix who wrote (35816)	5/19/2000 11:24:00 AM
From: Mr.Fun	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

Gary, Here is how institutional investors are looking at Cisco's valuation: Current price of $52 = 85times CY00 consensus EPS 81 times consensus + 3 cents PE on 5/19/99 = 69 times CY99 consensus PE on 5/19/98 = 40 times CY98 consensus Expected revenue growth = 30-50% as per company guidance Expected EPS growth = 25-45% as per company guidance Realistic Discounted Cashflow Value = $30-40 Look, things may change, but it feels like we are returning to a market where things like earnings acceleration and upside EPS surprises matter again. Big funds are using every upside pop in the stock to unload big overweighted positions. There will be alot of pressure in the absence of a big positive surprise and continued strong Cisco performance is no surprise.

To: The Phoenix who wrote (35816)	5/19/2000 11:32:00 AM
From: GVTucker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

Gary, RE: I didn't expect this given max pain point.. There is absolutely zero data that gives any credence to the 'max pain point.' While stocks do indeed trend towards a strike price at expiration, there's really no reliable indicator of which strike the stock price will hit until hours before expiration, not days, and even then, the most likely strike has nothing to do with open interest. Rather, the most likely strike is nothing more than the strike price closest to the price of the stock.

To: The Phoenix who wrote (35816)	5/19/2000 3:07:00 PM
From: PMS Witch	Respond to of 77400

Took a peek at history again... Since the IPO, the average PE for CSCO was 48 and the average growth about 57%. Now the last time we've seen year over year growth above the 57% average was the quarter ending in the fall of 1998. One could be forgiven for believing that with slower than the historic average earnings growth, a below average PE would be reasonable. Given today's earnings, and considering a 48 PE as a maximum, we get a current share price of $23. However, let's not discount the market's ability to price things unreasonably low: After all, we've just seen a period of unreasonably high prices for quite some time now. Remember, in the summer of 1994 CSCO traded with a PE of 16 while earnings was growing at 66%. (Note: for those who bought at this time, they'd paid $1.06) At that time, the comments made about CSCO's future were so negative they would make our current TM's appear as cheerleaders. Those who augmented their CSCO holdings at unreasonably low prices enjoyed tremendous appreciation for over five years. In the stock market, courage beats brains. And no, today isn't different --- fear and greed still locked in combat, with fear enjoying the upper hand just now. Prepare for the worst, enjoy the ride, prosper. Cheers, PW.