Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (51240)	5/19/2000 10:59:00 AM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Respond to of 99985

very nice post. Thanks

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (51240)	5/19/2000 11:59:00 AM
From: Wayners	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

The impacts of this move won't begin to show up until mid-2001, at the soonest. Until that occurs, there's little to stop the economy from ripping ahead at the 4.5% growth pace its been on for four years Because of lag, what else would you expect? There is nothing else that can be done so don't worry about it. Who cares what the growth rate is until the rate moves have their effect. Not only that, the Fed is NOT targeting growth--that's what they've said. In short, the Fed can ill afford the luxury of waiting for the lags to play out. Is this guy huffing propane? Do you see this guy's logic? What a dope to think that additional rate hikes now would somehow make the lag disappear. You could raise short term rates right now to 15% and you wouldn't see the effects of that still for 12 months--and those effects would be catastrophic and take a decade to reverse. What an idiot. Glad he doesn't work for the Fed.

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (51240)	5/19/2000 1:29:00 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 99985

excellent article. thanks. eom

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (51240)	5/19/2000 6:02:00 PM
From: Ben Wa	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

regarding the labor market, Greenspan and other economists have forgotten an important factor - changing demographics. For example, second and third generation americans have fewer kids. Young people create bodies that apply for jobs and the more there are of them, the less the wage pressures. Having fewer kids is a long term positive, in that it is disinflationary and puts less strain on natural resources and is the single most important factor in keeping the earth from being trashed. Japan's demographics are where the US will be (absent immigration) in 25 years. Families have few children, BUT in addition to a strain on the labor force, the bigger impact is a decline in the demand for products/svcs by younger people, and so the economy slows. (leaving out the metrics of antiquated Japanese industrial/fiscal policies) So, the Fed Reserve by changing interest rates will have NO effect on the birthrate of folks in the US, unless the economy gets so bleak that people have fewer kids because they realize they won't have the $ to feed them.