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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (51264)	5/19/2000 1:35:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

George, otoh Consensus Inc bullish sentiment fell to 19% last week. that means a low is getting closer in time (not necessarily in price though...in '98, just before the worst part of the sell-off began, Consensus Inc. sentiment also hit 19%). furthermore we have stressed out credit markets (spreads are now way above the panic highs seen in '98), rising commodity prices, the trade imbalance gets ever worse, and other sentiment measures (non-poll) are far from being oversold. so it may take a wash-out type move to put in an intermediate term low. the fund inflows this week show that J.Q.Public's confidence remains unshaken thus far...a week or two of strong outflows may be needed to signal a low. however, if a true drawn-out bear market takes over, all these considerations may be for naught...they are based on the premise that aside from NAZ/RUT/NDX there is no bear market yet. regards, hb