To: Hawkmoon who wrote (9120 ) 5/19/2000 3:56:00 PM From: Daniel Chisholm Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 9798
We're counting on the fact that CORL is a Canadian institution and the embarrassment that would surround its collapse. I think that that sort of nationalism is mostly behind us -- I would say that this will be a non-factor in the resolution of this. Corel will sink or swim, IMHO, without any hope of governmental help. This was an issue I mulled over when I shorted Gandalf -- would Canada's first NASDAQ-listed company (and an Ottawa-area one to boot) be "permitted" to fail? At the time, I concluded that we were beyond that sort of stuff (correctly as it turns out). Another thing FWIW, if I might be permitted to contribute an opinion based on personal knowledge of something that doesn't yet appear to be widely known: I don't think Corel has any chance of raising funds (as suggested by one of the newswire articles I've seen this week) via a toxic convertible financing -- the market for this has really dried up since last July. (Exhibit A: the wind-up of the "SEC Search Club"). I think Cowpland's avenues for pulling a rabbit out of a hat are much more restricted now than ever (for both company-specific as well as marketwide reasons). If he does do it, it will certainly be by far his most amazing trick to date, IMO. I have been having second thoughts about holding on to my (very new, and relatively large) Corel short position though -- while they are facing a cash crunch, these things always take much, much, much longer to play out than I can possibly imagine or predict. While I think (at this point) that Corel is a dead duck, I'll bet they have a better than 50% chance of not declaring bankruptcy this calendar year. - Daniel P.S. It's nice to see reasonably high quality (and civil!) viewpoints being expressed on both sides here in this thread. P.P.S Nice to run across you again Ron, haven't read anything from you for many months -- ever since way back when Henry Volquardsen's "Currencies and the Global Capital Markets" thread was active.