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Technology Stocks : Kulicke and Soffa -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Red Dragon who wrote (3788)	5/19/2000 6:16:00 PM
From: scott_jiminez	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5482

Speaking of opinions... Please check back on THIS post 6-9 months from now. Either Dragon or Jiminez will be viewed as the fool personified. IMO - 1. The cycle is not over. 2. Regarding Gottfried's charts: the 'truth' of these instruments rely on the belief system of the reader. Like a broken watch, Gottfried's charts will appear to be predictive every so often. I, along with others on the Yahoo thread, believe the charts are at once revealing and deceiving. Since I believe the cycle is 3-5 years, not ~2 years, I do not place much value on Gottfried's charts. 3. Regarding insider trading: look at Teradyne. Probably 50 sales in the last year....as compared to ~4 for Klic. During this period of incredible selling, TER's share price ~tripled. 4. Most of all, shareholders constantly fall into the trap of believing that the behavior of 'their' stock somehow exists in a vacuum. Or 'their' sector behaves in a vacuum. Klic and the equipment industry are behaving in lockstep with the technology sector. There's no possible method of determining a sector specific event when EVERYTHING is tanking, baby and bathwater. Cisco is behaving a poorly as Klic. LSI Logic is doing worse. The market is awaiting the stabilization of interest rates. Until the economic data suggests the Fed can stop tightening, the market is likely to continue slumping. Klic's performance has nothing to do with the anticipated strength of its business 6-9 months from now nor does it have anything to do with an anticipated cyclical downturn in the sector. The tech stocks are in a interest rate-driven bear market and this will take X amount of time to resolve itself. People may look back at a post from 4-6 weeks ago and say, 'See, the charts said it all'...an opinion that many may now support. But hindsight is one thing and foresight is another. I believe those charts tell us very little of what to expect in the next year or two in the sector. Capacity constraints still exist, demand is huge, and Fab construction etc. has just begun. In my estimation, this period is very similar to the first 6 months of 1994 when the sector paused ~6 months in the middle of a 4 year rally. In my view, in a little while we'll look back at the spring and early summer of 2000 and think to ourselves, 'Ya know that phrase, 'Buy when blood is on the streets' REALLY was/is true'. JMHO.