To: Sam Citron who wrote (103666 ) 5/19/2000 4:39:00 PM From: Robert Rose Respond to of 164684
Friday May 19, 4:16 pm Eastern Time Sharp drop in U.S. online trading volume seen in May By Greg Cresci NEW YORK, May 19 (Reuters) - Stock trading volumes at online brokerage firms are likely to show a steep drop in May as rudderless U.S. markets sap investor appetite, analysts said on Friday. The torrent of Internet-based stock trades is off 35 percent so far this month from already sagging April levels, according to influential industry analyst Jim Marks of investment bank Credit Suisse First Boston. The trend, which has been acknowledged by top executives in the industry, has caused analysts like Marks to take a dimmer view of the profit outlook for online brokerages. ``Our models for all these companies call for a decline in second-quarter earnings,'' Marks said. ``Until we see some improvement in market performance or at least a stabilisation, and especially a reduction in intraday volatility, one should not be very optimistic regarding trading volumes.'' At Charles Schwab Corp. (NYSE:SCH - news), the No. 1 U.S. discount and Internet brokerage, April's total customer daily average trades fell 8 percent from March to 386.8 thousand. ``After starting this year with four very active months, overall market volumes have declined recently and we are once again experiencing the seasonal pattern that we've seen in the past two years -- our customers' trading activity thus far in May is down from April levels,'' Schwab President and Co-chief Executive David Pottruck, said in a recent statement. The decline in stock trades is coming off a record first quarter, when investors funnelled a record 1.4 million trades a day through the Internet, up from around 800,000 in the fourth quarter. But there's more than seasonal factors at work, analysts and industry executives said. The Nasdaq composite index, which is the barometer of America's fast-growing technology companies, is down 33 percent from its high of 5048.62 on March 10. Investors tend to trade less in a falling market. At TD Waterhouse Group Inc. (NYSE:TWE - news), the No. 2 U.S. discount brokerage with 2.8 million customer accounts, trading volumes are also on the wane. ``There will be peaks and valleys created by the market conditions, so the trend will be impacted as to its speed by market events but not to its general direction.'' said TD Waterhouse's chief executive, Stephen McDonald, in a telephone interview. McDonald added that the trend toward online investing was still strong. A drop in investors' enthusiasm for minute-to-minute online stock trading reflects broader characteristics of the market, such as weakness in the initial public offering (IPO) market, said Greg Smith, an analyst with investment bank Chase Hambrecht & Quist. ``Online trading volumes are going to track performance and if people are doing well, they're going to trade more and you get this speculative fever that bleeds into the market,'' Smith said. ``There just isn't as much of that speculative froth in the marketplace right now.'' Barring a market breakdown, analysts do see volumes pick up again in the traditionally strong fourth quarter. ``I think it'll be a bit of a jolt to see that volumes are down 20 percent sequentially, or even more in May versus April, but I think at the end of the day people will look back and realise we had this before,'' Smith said. Daily volume in Nasdaq stocks averaged 1.9 billion shares in March, but that slumped to 1.87 billion shares in April. As of Friday, May 12, it stood at 1.74 billion year to date. On the New York Stock Exchange, the world's No. 1 stock market, daily volume averaged 1.14 billion shares in March and 1.06 billion shares in April. As of last Friday, the NYSE average daily share volume stood at 800.5 million year to date. ``Unless the market has a dramatic upward move, I think we are in for a bit of a lull here through the summer,'' Smith said. ``You can't go straight up forever, there's got to be a let up.''