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To: rsie who wrote (13840)	5/19/2000 5:05:00 PM
From: sea_biscuit	Respond to of 15132

A short-term rally in the Naz is quite possible. But I think much of the relatively low volume is because the little guys are in denial and are hoping against hope that they will be made whole in the next few weeks, not because they are confident. And that is not exactly an encouraging sign. Also note that we had a decline on higher volume than yesterday -- a clear sign of distribution. Also the market doesn't seem to have priced in the June interest rate hike yet. That one could be another 50 basis point whopper. So a month from now, we could be watching "Diarrhea II" being enacted on the screen. I think investors should consider themselves very lucky if the lows of last year (1200 on the S&P 500 and 2200 on the Nasdaq) are not taken out sometime this year...

To: rsie who wrote (13840)	5/19/2000 6:27:00 PM
From: rsie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

just talked with my chinese connection ..... tonight at 8:00PM california time, the new president of taiwan will give his acceptance speech. The following is what may happen in the next few months according to my friend from China, 1.the new president will never say "one china" policy or speak of "independence". This will not be satisfactory to Red China. 2.The red chinese are still willing to sacrifice the economy to take back Taiwan. They believe that it is their right to "liberate" Taiwan. They know that Japan and the US will probably get involved but feel that the US will not have staying power. 3.the "war" will come about in 4 steps starting in September. A.They will embargo the largest port in Taiwan for 1 month with submarines bought from Russia. They will hope to negotiate with taiwan. B.If this does not work,they will take over a small island near Taiwan--"golden Gate island"(translation). C.They will then attack the "Pum Hu", small islands around Taiwan and take them over. D.Finally, they have a superiority of 3:1 in terms of jets. The red chinese feel that they can dominate with these odds and maintain air dominance. They will not want to use many bombs because a great plus for them would be the industry that they get in the end(chip industry). They have many "laser bombs" that do not knock out buildings(do not know much about these laser bombs, sorry). They will take out power supplies as the US did during the Kosovo incident. The head of the PLA(people's liberation army) has boasted that he is willing to sacrifice 200,000 soldiers to liberate Taiwan. Please do not shoot the messenger.....These are the "free"thoughts of a visiting Chinese citizen in the US with knowledge of chinese history.