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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: A.L. Reagan who wrote (4934)	5/20/2000 9:45:00 AM
From: tero kuittinen	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 34857

It was OT... you will be punished for your disregard of thread rules. Yes, Nokia is denominated in Euros. The Finnish chart of NOK looks better than the US chart. I'm not sure about the global comparison chart... there was an interesting article on the New York-London-Stockholm-Helsinki fight over Nokia volume a while ago somewhere. Helsinki is holding its own, New York is gaining a little and London is losing. About 80% of the HEX volume is Nokia on an interesting day. There's some debate about who's on the driver's seat. Nokia in Helsinki often tends to dip before Wall Street opens - some say that in NYSE, Nokia has a tendency to open relatively weakly compared to US telecom companies and do better near to the close (in anticipation of the European trading the following day). There's this Voodoo School of deranged patternists who try to exploit the trends - Helsinki dipping around 8 AM EST and Nokia starting weaker than Mot or Lu in New York and then closing the gap towards late afternoon. Some people buy Nokia in Helsinki in late afternoon or in New York in early morning to avoid intra-day peaks. And sell in reverse. Nokia is very conservatively hedged against currency swings. If euro stays around 0.90, that may start showing up in network margins after 6-9 months. But there is heavy protection against short, sharp currency swings. Euro is already undervalued by just about any measure but psychological. The crash in value is linked to the fact that nobody has any faith in the French and German politicians. I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for a further slide after the big tumble that has already taken place. Dollar has been buoyed by the zooming Nasdaq and above 5% US GDP growth. Neither are going to help to keep dollar strong in the near term - these were Nineties phenomena. Alan will push the GDP growth below 4% one way or the other. There's the easy way and there's the hard way. If it happens the hard way and foreign investors start pulling back their money, there is no floor for the dollar. Anyway - sooner or later Euro will creep back above parity. And as that happens, Nokia's ADR is going to appreciate by 10% or more. Chickenfeed? Not these days. If euro stays at 0.90, the hedges Nokia is using against currency movements will start eroding and the profit margins of some exports out of European factories go up. The only negative scenario for Nokia would be euro that stays at 1.20-1.30 or higher for a year or so. That would eat into export profits. I don't see that happening as long as the French stay French. Tero