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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Prophet who wrote (11238)	5/19/2000 10:19:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 60323

Prophet, I simply do not see a model that yields $10/share for SNDK by 2003, I see roughly $1.50 in 2001, $2.00 in 2002 and "only" $3.00 in 2003. (I expect oversupply in the semis segment in general to appear mid to late in 2001 and become a major problem in 2002, then growth resumes in 2003, but I am not sure how pricing will be, but I am keeping the growth rate since I believe the IP portion of earnings will become more important). Zeev

To: The Prophet who wrote (11238)	5/19/2000 10:50:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 60323

The Prophet: Here is a snippet, and at its end a worrysome statement, in my opinion: It states that flash in the first Q 0f 2000 grew by 200%, if that is the case, is SNDK losing market share? Zeev semibiznews.com STMicro economist sees semiconductor downturn in 2003 By Darrell Dunn Electronic Buyers' News (05/17/00, 04:02:38 PM EDT) PARIS -- Although the semiconductor industry could experience growth of 40% or better in 2000 and 2001, companies should be prepared for the next downturn in 2003, STMicroelectronics' Jean-Philippe Dauvin said here today. The next downturn will begin in the middle of 2002, leading to a 5%market decline in 2003, before a 4% rebound in 2004, Dauvin said at the Europartners Distribution 2000 Forum here. The good news is that the emergence of the "e-society," manifested in mobile and connectivity products, will provide overall strong growth for the industry for the next 15 years, replacing the PC as the primary growth engine for the industry, he said. "In the past 15 years, the maximum number of PCs shipped each year was 110-to-120 million," Dauvin said. "This year there will be 470 million cellular phones, 50 million set-top boxes, and 20 million DVDs shipped." While the semiconductor content of applications such as cellular phones may total only $40, compared with $260 to $300 for an average PC, the greater volumes of e-society products will provide higher growth, he said. Officially, Dauvin projects market growth of better than 30% for 2000 and 2001, although he said that historical market trends would indicate the growth may be closer to 40% for the next two years. Dauvin projected 28% to 35% growth in 2002. Problems in the industry will continue to mount due to a lack of sufficient fab capacity, he said. During the latest industry downturn, capital spending decreased from $43 billion in 1996 to $27 billion in 1998 due to fab shutdowns and project delays and cancellations. The industry is at a 94% fab utilization rate. Dauvin said the industry fell below the required new fab capacity in 1998, and this year even if 15 fabs are built, that will leave the industry 15 fabs short of needed capacity. "Relying solely on foundries is dangerous," Dauvin added. Trends that will drive growth for the next few years include cellular telephones, which will increase from 510 million subscribers in 1999 to 1.8 billion in 2005, and the "digital household." The number of Internet connected households is expected to grow from 60 million in 2000 to 260 million in 2005. "The current upturn is driven by the e-society, mobility, and connectivity, and the current expansion is still young, and much stronger than the1993-1996 one," Dauvin said. Dauvin, who also serves on the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics board, said growth in the first quarter of 2000 was led by flash memory, which grew at 200%, followed by communications ICs, at 59%, and differentiated ICs, such as digital signal processors (DSPs), at 37%.

To: The Prophet who wrote (11238)	5/19/2000 11:14:00 PM
From: Ausdauer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 60323

Prophet and Zeev, I have read comments from both of you. I wished to remark. ________________________________________________________________________________ To the upside (where we have been)... Well respected analysts have already given price targets several fold above our current share price. These estimates may be "ebullient" and totally unrealistic given the latest technical characteristics of the price decline. They may be based on an investor climate rooted in euphoria and disinhibition. Thus, I think these targets are doubtful now only due to general market conditions, NOT A FUNDAMENTAL BREAKDOWN IN SANDISK'S BUSINESS MODEL OR EXECUTION. To the downside (where we are now)... A doomsday scenario that totally overlooks SanDisk's unique position in the flash market and applies simplistic valuation tools based to overly pessimistic analysts earnings projections is equally faulty. SanDisk is a pure play. It is a prototypic Gorilla Game stock that is executing exactly as planned in multiple (yes, multiple) tornado markets that are developing at a pace faster than anyone would have predicted. This positioning is nearly unprecedented. Further, we are in a period of supply and demand inversion that is typical of a tornado. The Oppenheimer CNBC guest is either badly misinformed, delirious or attentionally crapping on the stock to establish or increase a position. _________________________________________________________________________________ What I believe... I believe that Dr. Harari's remarks regarding market elasticity are dead on. I believe also that SanDisk's IP position is supersaturated now and on the verge of crystallization. I believe that visibility is clearer now than ever before. I believe SanDisk is about to enter a period of hypergrowth. And I believe the technical data that everyone is bantying about is terribly skewed by the liquidation of shares sold by a single entity that owned 22% of this company. I believe this is an unbelievable buying opportunity for a long-term investor who has the patience to buy and hold. THAT IS PRECISELY WHY MY MONIKER IS "AUSDAUER". I BELIEVE I HAVE THE PATIENCE TO ENDURE PERIODS EXACTLY LIKE THIS. For support for my contentions I draw on the sum total of every single post I have made here over the last 2 years. Ausdauer "My favorite holding period is forever."