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To: Didi who wrote (19539)5/20/2000 3:25:00 PM
From: Didi  Respond to of 35685
 
FWIW: 2 cents on EMC 00Jun puts:

optionstrategist.com
Symbol hv20 hv50 hv100 DATE curiv Days/Percentile
EMC 78 69 61 000512 63 591/ 90%ile

Calculated probabilities (Monte Carlo simulation)***:
As of 5/19/00:
1. 00Jun100 put (EMB RT), (2 3/8 x 2 5/8):
...closes beyond downside = 24.7%
...ever exceeds downside = 42.32% well chosen, forte

2. 00Jun105 put (EMB RA), (3 1/2 x 3 5/8):
...closes beyond downside = 31.76%
...ever exceeds downside = 55.17%

*** Jim Willie is the expert on this subject.