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Technology Stocks : Frank Coluccio Technology Forum - ASAP -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Frank A. Coluccio who wrote (1639)	5/20/2000 10:16:00 AM
From: Kenneth E. Phillipps	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1782

Frank, do you think there is a trend towards switching and routing functions moving downwards to the semi-conductor and embedded software level? The author of this article seems to think so. He points out that Layer 2 switches have already become a commodity and seems to think this trend will continue from the LAN into the MAN and WAN. If he is correct, I have to speculate which companies are beneficiaries of such a trend and the names of Intel and IBM come to mind. ragingbull.com

To: Frank A. Coluccio who wrote (1639)	5/22/2000 10:34:00 PM
From: James Fulop	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 1782

Having appreciated both the original Yahoo post and your response to it after it was brought to your attention by Mike, I linked your response in one of my posts to the original writer as I exchange posts with him over on Yahoo quite a bit... His reaction: >>I think if the critic had included the second part that I posted a day later, it would have been even better. That is the one where I said that the true revolution is happening at the edge.<< messages.yahoo.com So, I feel obligated to "continue" the post Mike originally brought to your attention. >>The truly revolutionary change that will cause what ph_wilson is talking about happen is the dramatic increase in bandwidth at the edge of the network. Home connections are jumping from 64k dial up modems to multiple megabit xDSL or cable modem connections. There is a 2 dimensional problem here. Huge jump in bandwidth, wide area of dispersion for that bandwidth. Core of major networks are very concentrated and migration costs per unit may be high but you get a lot of leverage for it and you build in the constant migration to keep up with technology into business model. For the first time in history the network is being evolved from 2 directions simultaneously, from the core going out in the traditional way, and from the edge going inward with xDSL and cable modems. This puts tremendous stress onto the point where these 2 collide, the metropolitan networks. Here is where CIEN is going to start bucking heads with the local loop people and you are going to see some real mind share wars as to which side has the best answers. Core area has a few dominant players. Edge area has hundreds of players and no one is dominant OR EVEN CLOSE TO IT. Lots of 100-300 people companies each with their product and story to tell. I dont think Sonet gear will be thrown away. It is still useful to hook up the edge to the metropolitan network until we get packet switching in the optical domain. But all that old switching gear for bandwidth streams less than a few megabit (i.e. T1) is going the way of 110 cps teletype. That was state of the art for hooking up major businesses 5 years ago and it wont be adequate for residential use. Local TELCOs have been depreciating at something like 25 years of use.<< messages.yahoo.com