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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: blake_paterson who wrote (42621)	5/20/2000 9:44:00 AM
From: blake_paterson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Taking stock on an early Sat AM. The fundamentals that appear to have changed in the past month: 1. An additional 1MM platforms will likely consume RMBS parts this Q, assuming that INTC makes good on its promise to recall and upgrade to RMBS and that the 820 numbers being tossed about are correct. 2. PS2 doing better than anticipated. 3. SDRAM pricing continues to firm up, calling into question RDRAM allocations for 3-4Q 2000. 4. RDRAM and RIMM prices continue to drop. messages.yahoo.com 5. Samsung intends to ramp up RDRAM faster than the most recent projections. 6. Kingston introduces more testing equip improvements which it will share / sell / use, thus accelerating the production cost / yield improvement. 7. INTC tries to cajole the DRAM producers to ramp up RDRAM sufficiently to supply the 820 recall and Willamete 3-4Q2000 demands, while also achieving a continues reduction in RDRAM cost. From the sounds of it (or lack there of), the first attempt does not bode well for INTC / RMBS. At best, no change. At worst, we haven't crossed the chasm yet (I thought we were inside the tornado?). 8. Word leaks from that INTC allegedly has a backup SDRAM / DDRAM chipset for the Willy, the "Armado". RMBS Fundamentals that haven't changed: a. RDRAM is the INTC desktop memory roadmap for the future. b. Dell is 100% behind the RDRAM solution. c. Other boxbuilders are behind the RDRAM solution, to varying degrees. d. DDR will be the mainstream server solution for the foreseeable solution. e. No DDR chipset for desktops. Only alpha / beta, cryogenically cooled <joke>, demos. = No DDR desktop platform = No DDR desktop product = No DDR desktop demand = Desktop Vaporware! f. PC's are and will represent < 40% of RMBS applications for the next 5 years.