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Technology Stocks : SDL, Inc. [Nasdaq: SDLI] -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (1390)	5/20/2000 2:20:00 PM
From: pat mudge	Respond to of 3951

Mucho -- I'm glad you've stepped in to give another slant on the possibilities --- and to correct my numbers when I leave off one quarter's revenues. My back-of-the-napkin scribbling gets pretty messy. :) (I hope my errors are always on the low side.) Here's some figures from Chase H&Q as of April 10 --- well before the PIRI announcement: FY/Q TotRev GM OpInc OpMar NetInc NetMar EPS DilShares FY00-Q1 $72.206 47.9% $21.833 30.2% $17.632 24.4% $0.22 76.507 FY00-Q2 $91.053 48.6% $27.379 30.1% $20.435 22.4% 0.25 80.624 FY00-Q3 $102.221 48.9% $30.916 30.2% $22.721 22.2% $0.28 81.624 FY00-Q4 $113.944 49.0% $34.429 30.2% $25.001 21.9% $0.30 83.224 FY01-Q1 $125.854 49.1% $38.176 30.3% $27.412 21.8% $0.32 84.624 FY01-Q2 $137.915 49.1% $42.130 30.5% $29.955 21.7% $0.35 86.624 FY01-Q3 $$148.910 49.6% $45.803 30.8% $32.319 21.7% $0.36 88.624 FY01-Q4 $162.59 49.8% $50.357 31.0% $35.246 21.7% $0.39 90.624 I agree the ramp to 24/7 could be smooth with the only caveat being availability of trained workers. As for average sales prices dropping, Lucent is their prime customer and their comments out of the recent H&Q conference indicate they're a long ways from meeting customer demand, so I don't see this being a factor in the next few quarters. Beyond that, my vision gets a little blurry. With SDL's margins, Mike guided 25% for the current quarter and said it would likely return to normal (20%) beyond that. So to be conservative, I'd use that figure beyond Q2. At least until guided otherwise. I'd emphasize again, along with you, that these numbers are just "fun and games" and not to be taken seriously. The main point being, PIRI will add significantly to revenues and so far no one's factored this into their estimates --- and if H&Q is any guide, they won't until after the acquisition closes. I've increased output by going to double shifts plus week-ends, and if they move to SDL's 24/7, those figures go up considerably. I would brave a guess that any sales deterioration would be off-set by manufacturing efficiencies. SDL's operations seem to improve every quarter. I don't know if I mentioned earlier that in conversation with Mike he said Josef Straus congratulated them on the PIRI acquisition. He said he sent flowers but I'm not sure if that was literal or figurative. However, knowing Mike -- the straightest person I've ever met --- it was probably the former. Re: Russell Crowe, I hadn't thought of the Harrison Ford comparison, but in Gladiator he reminds me of a young Richard Burton, though with the quiet machismo of Humphry Bogart. Probably the Aussie in him! :) I didn't catch the name of the female lead but I suspect we'll see her again. Okay, I have a room to paint and a fresh gallon of latex waiting. . . Pat