To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (51417 ) 5/20/2000 8:33:00 PM From: Zeev Hed Read Replies (1) | Respond to
Haim, for the rate of penetration you quote 1/10 3 billions, or 300 MM (is that per year?, I surely do not expect this rate of penetration to be reached even in 10 years) is $300 Billions (assuming not $500 to $600 but $1000), and that is peanuts. The fact of the matter is that the "rest of the world GDP can support that deployment on its own. The more important issue as far as the markets are concerned is where does the money go. I believe that in the short term (after we create a good bottom just around here, if we do), money will flow back into equities. I fear that the lessons of overvaluation have not been learned yet by the market, and further extremes may have to be reached before people wake up. This with the impending political season (and the folly pushed around to let SS money go into the market), as mentioned by a poster here, both side of the political arena will have an "urgent interest" in seeing that the markets do not fold hard prior to November. After November? Maybe the deluge. If liquidity would have been absent, engineering such a bull would be difficult, but with sloshing liquidity and the Feds stopping the interest squeeze sometime in the June-July period, the pieces will be in place for a bull party, IMHO.
